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The Long-Term Message From Transportation Stocks

SIMILARITIES TO 2011-2012 AND 2015-2016 Over the past ten months, numerous developments (breadth thrusts, asset class behavior, sentiment, etc.) have told us to remain open to a bottoming-process/rally similar to action following major stock market lows in October 2011 and...
Chris Ciovacco | November 12, 2019 |

The Long-Term Message From The VIX

STOCKS vs. EXPECTED VOLATILITY The VIX measures the market’s expectation of future volatility. We can think of the S&P 500/VIX ratio as a way to track confidence in stocks and earnings relative to confidence the market will be volatile. The S&P 500/VIX ratio is currently in...
Chris Ciovacco | April 16, 2019 |

The Message From The Stock/Bond Ratio

BONDS WERE EXTENDED AT THE END OF MAY Rare extended look on May 31, 2019. A June 4 post outlined an extremely rare and extended condition in the bond market that had only occurred ten times in the past thirty-three years. The historical cases told us to be open to a pe...
Chris Ciovacco | July 31, 2019 |

The Message From Common Stock Market Retracement Levels

RETRACEMENTS SPEAK TO ODDS If we are to believe the market’s rally off the December 2018 low is the last hurrah, we would expect to see some damage on the normal retracement front. Using the last rally into the S&P 500’s major October 2007 p...
Chris Ciovacco | October 8, 2019 |

Key Message from IMF for the Gold Market

The Spring Meeting of the World Bank and the IMF, during which the latter organization released its fresh World Economic Outlook , has just ended. What are the takeaways for the gold market? Stagnation or Acceleration after the Slowdown? In Thursday’s ...
Arkadiusz Sieron | April 16, 2019 |

The Dollar’s Subtle Message for Gold

Gold and the US dollar. The yellow metal and its fiat nemesis. Often, they move inversely, though the strength and even the direction of their relationship varies when examined from different time perspectives. What is the message the greenback is sending out currently? ...
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA | February 11, 2020 |

Record-Low Unemployment and Trump’s Message to China: Implications for Gold

The US unemployment rate dropped in April to 3.6 percent, a level not seen since December 1969. So, everything must be great. With the exception of the renewed worries about the U.S.-China trade deal. On Sunday, President Trump surprised the markets again. What did he write ex...
Arkadiusz Sieron | May 6, 2019 |

The Miners’ Message for the PMs Rally

The Fed kept rates unchanged and while it was not immediately preceded by major price moves in the PMs, the no-change decision was followed by bullish price action in the following hours. This action extends into today’s pre-market trading. Most interestin...
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA | January 30, 2020 |

Powell Sends a Message With Love for Gold

Powell gave a much-awaited speech yesterday, in which he sent one bearish and two bullish messages for gold. What exactly did he say and what does it mean for the yellow metal? Powell Sends One Bearish and Two Bullish Messages for Gold Jerome Powell gave a speech yest...
Arkadiusz Sieron | May 14, 2020 |

A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security

Gold stocks have repeated their decline once again yesterday while gold and silver soldier on. When will the miners take gold and silver down with them? Underperformance is a critical sign of weakness, there’s no denying that. Would today’s Fed ...
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA | March 20, 2019 |
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