rollwithit2000 wrote: Ill admit I never post on here but Ive been reading through the comments and they’re filled with so much emotional frenzy I had to say something. Do some of you guys live in a vaccum? Why the SP is down? Its pretty simple. The whole market is down esp growth stocks. Small caps growth stocks are down everywhere. They started diving in early 2021 and last chunk fell late 2021. Ark Innovation ETF pretty much matches the trend. You could probably watch that instead of $TRIP and get the same results, similar chart. Microcaps are even further down and psychedelic stocks are all way down. Simply put, this isnt a hot industry right now at all- thats it. Nothing to see here. Despite all the postiive psychedelics headlines, the cattle has not come to this party at all. They have left with bruises. Mind Medicine, Cybin, Field Trip, Compass, ATAI, Numinus not to even mention the players who arent even really considered very legit anymore (ie. Ehave, Mydecine, Neonmind, Tryp etc.) all are at all time lows with a shred of the volume they had early 2021 and way less the volume that you will need to lift the SP and spark some bull run. Cannabis stocks and many industries popular with young retail investors are also at all time lows. Been through this with cannabis stocks and crypto before. These are cycles esp typical of new nascent industries few investors properly understand. If you arent ready to hold for several months if not years, Id highly suggest you sell immediately and move on. Both the industry in general and the macro environment will need a turnaround or get some jolt from legislation to get this industry really cooking. Peak inflation will be key. The volume, $$$ and interest just isnt there right now. Its obvious.
The fact that $TRIP is trading at cash is for a few reasons IMO: 1) $TRIP isnt promoting nor marketing the stock at all (I assume this is strategic on the company’s part to A) hide their superior strategy and B) probably because we are in a bear market - whats the point - and unlike so many companies, they dont need to raise cash) 2) psilocybin isnt legal for recreational use anywhere yet other than the Neatherlands really and 3) many (IMO naive) psychedelic investors are still convinced clinical trials for billions of dollars and with FDA approval will be the only way psilocybin ever becomes legal, which is the exact same error they made with cannabis if you go back to 2015.
If you invested in $TRIP, you most likely have tried psilocybin and you know magic mushrooms are in a similar family as edible cannabis from a user’s perspective. They are safe, non addictive and cant be patented as they are fungi which will make it perfect for a similar model as medical/recreational cannabis. Once more folks try psilocybin, more broader legalization IMO is inevitable. These arent the dangerous scary natural plants the “clinical trial scientists and so called experts” are pretending they are and once naive investors and the wider public realize this, it will turn into a blossoming farming industry quick. Few get this right now at all but Optimi Health’s recent surge proves that some clearly do see it.
In the end, there are plenty of billion dollar cannabis companies but this is one of the few companies really looking at psilocybin as a recreational/wellness play and its worth its cash on hand with growing revenue. Im not sure what there is to really fear about this unless you are obsessed with SP daily as it goes up and down and all around. If you want to momentum trade for quick pop, I highly recommend you go elsewhere. Yes, SP could go even lower or higher short term. This is a bear market cycle. If you have endured this, even good news can send a stock crashing. Cryptos did this from 2018-2019 and then, snap - everything changed. Very predictable actually. In the end, until a huge volume of capital pours into this industry and small cap growth stocks in general, the stock isnt going to do much of anything at all. Why would you expect otherwise? Like watching a cake due in 12 hours every 5 minutes after 1 hour has passed. In the end, almost all of $TRIP’s moves over the past 2 years have been almost undebatedly excellent: 1) partnering with top mushroom producers in Canada which builds their network if psilocybin legalization happens (again inevitable IMO as stores already open all over Vancouver) but in the meantime assures revenue 2) buying SR Wholesale which sets up a network through Europe if other countries go legal and again brings in short term revenue etc.
And $TRIP’s strategy isnt actually like the Canadian cannabis LPs at all who spent money
anticipating what a legal market might look like but its actually taking all of their momentus flaws and building a more bulletproof business model. They are focusing on building networks, becoming cultivation experts and revenue generating vehicles now. The only company that may bear some arguable resemblance from the Canadian LPs perspective is Village Farms. $TRIP’s strategy assures survival regardless if psychedelics never even become widely legal. Few companies in the sector can boast that kind of security.
When money actually does come pouring in the sector (which BTW is absolutely inevitable again IMO), dont you think a sub section of these investors will be interested in the only public company actually selling psilocybin and seeing the recreational/wellness market given the action state by state across the USA? The programs state by state are clearly quasi medical to push for broader legalization. Its not medical when you dont need a diagnosis and a MD isnt precribing you psilocybin. Yes. 280E will be an annoying problem re earnings but remember weed has multiple MSOs focused on recreational cannabis worth billions and billions of dollars. Psychedelics has one company (maybe two or three arguably) focused on this recreational market and $TRIP is worth a mere <30M (almost cash on hand).
And the deal with Wiz is getting trashed. What? Do you even know what industry this is? How would that ever be a negative? 1) Khalifa Kush is one of the most respected and popular brands in weed in the USA. Its highly respected in the industry for those “in the know” 2) Even looking at the finer aspects of the deal with Wiz and when he can sell one can see he is heavily motivated to help raise the SP within 1 to 2 years 3) Even more, Wiz is well known buddies/business partners with Berner who runs Cookies which is arguably the best brands in all of cannabis and Snoop Dogg who is another big name garunteed to make splash.
Again, if you think folks will only get their magic mushrooms safely in a pill with patents and FDA approval, stay away from this stock. For the rest of us, this is a very similar play as how GW Pharma inadvertantly opened up a recreational market for natural non patented weed. Compass Pathways and Usona will prove the efficacy and safety of synthetic psilocybin with expensive clinical trials and likely inadvertntly proliferate state by state pressure to open up access to natural psilocybin, which is already known to be safer and easier to grow than weed. This is already happening. Thats why you got the likes of Chip Wilson, Berner and Bruce Linton all watching this industry closely. They know whats coming. Trust, they absolutely talk regularily to Canadian and American regulators/legislators. You got weak hands and no conviction, cash out and go buy some tech stocks or blue chips. This play is really strictly for those who like to get in early (weed pre 2015, crypto pre 2014 etc) and wait patiently for the masses to wake up, do a whiplash and finally get it.