A good tell for all these airlines is to track how the debt is trading .  AC and all others see their debt trading well below par, which reiterated my point about the impact of higher cost of capital (whether you are financing thru more expensive debt or lower equity price).    Holders of the debt expect to be paid back every penny with interest , and refinancing of existing debt will require higher interest costs.  That is what the debt pricing is telling us.   So what gets adjusted in the capital structure to account for the free cash flow burn and higher debt costs?   The equity value, and with just 263 million shares out , it doesn't take much to impact the valuation .    Equity value is supposed to be the discounted future cash flows of the business, so if the "k" discount rate goes up and near term free cash burn rate is higher, the swings in this value are enormous.  Every 8-10 days, AC likely burns about $1 / equity share   (or $260mm), as the debt holders don't care about near term cash burn (they just want the money repaid when due) so the sooner this pandemic and recession can ease, the sooner things can swing back the other way for the lowly equity holder.   


Hard Landing by Thomas Petzinger of the WSJ is a good read on the turbulent history of this industry, as is Glory Lost and Found by Seth Kaplan.   Understand an industry before you commit your risk dollars to it IMO.  Especially the airlines .