Some good points.  I think you are right re: break fee.  

and yes, anything Quebec related always has a political element, so govt May make it happen (albeit not at $18 lol).   The welfare provided to Bombardier was downright criminal.  Taxpayers were fleeced.   

the easiest thing for Calin and AC is For it not to happen.   They don't need more capacity and it would be an awful big cost and headache just to eliminate a leisure competitor .   They already have enough headaches .