RE:RE:Bigsillyman wants his investment backWarning large post ahead, but just in case you want some weekend reading.. :)
Thank you for your perspective and post.
I agree with your points but in my opinion HL has its warts too. Q2 had some increase in revenue, loss to common shareholder stock and so forth (Read - Hecla Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results in August). Time will tell if this is a good deal for investors, it appears it was a great deal for WPM and the owners. I don't know how many investors lost money or how much but I can imagine a few of them got a hard lesson.I got out except for a few when they shuttered the first time, thats always a bad sign.
Yes you can make money with a Keno Hill investment but it all depends on the price of silver. It does not depend so much much on managements expertise; if silver was at $50 AXU could have blundered along, paid thmeselves large increases and the shareholders would have said how great everything is!
Near term it appears the price of silver may just stay where its at. Thats why I think nothing going to happen up there in the next while, closing a mine and mill except for presumably maintainence mode is never a good thing and still has a cash burn component. Cant say what HLs intent is that remains to be seen, but will they be quick to sink another couple of hundred million dollars into this?
I will say this again in my opinion to anyone who is thinking AXU/HL is a sure thing and cares to listen, this is a very high risk area (as any investor in recent history and prior has found out) and any of your cash is a gamble and at risk.
AXU current outcome and share dollar value decline is an example of what can happen. The fairytail of instant riches that the promoters are soapboxing about is simply delusional.
Just ask any one of the managment from the UKHM days, contrary to the promoters here, they will tell you the past is not irrelevant, and in fact experience is everything. EOM.
The Yukon is full of this type of past and current mining operations, a lot of them just use OPM and see what happens, if they are lucky they get a productive (profitable mine) but mostly not.
If in fact it appears some of the most vocal slaggers and promoters here lost their money, they were warned over and over again.
I will say this to any potential investor listening to the promoters.. Do your own DD and RUN of it doesnt feel right. Only invest if you 1) Don't care about money 2) like gambling and consider it a form of entertainment.
Sidebar:
There are still people around who know this area above ground and underground very well.
Hint: A large part of the old undergrond workings were digitized and written to harddrives on early 80s XTs, etc. so it was recorded and saved. :)
My previous hint.
Axu was all show and no go, experienced miners from the 70s and 80s
knew chasing broken veins with massive equipment is crazy. But massive equipment (which is now written off as close to worthless, declining balence accounting you know) and large portals make for great show for the unwary investor. Air jacklegged drills, tracked mucking machines and cars aren't good for show.
New Hint - The relationship expressed? Who might be on the board. :)
Some history, why just because. :)
Who made money in the 70s and 80s?
1 - Smelter (as a side note trace gold was theirs to keep)
2 - Whitepass (shipping)
3 - Contractors who did the heavy builds (AXU is using some of them)
4 - Contractors who sunk the shafts
5 - Miners - some who never left
6 - Suppliers of equipment
7 - Camp provisioning suppliers
8 - Housing (pan abodes, bunkhouses) contractors
9 - Oil suppliers and shipping
10 - Steam Heating suppliers
-> UKHM paid shareholders a dividend and the stock was sort of stable until 89. This was with a labour force that was completely and totally different from today.
roberto146 wrote: Well, on the upside matt is now agreeing with the posters that he ridiculed and disparaged for wanting more information on progress, and now hopes that HL will help him recover his losses (if he even has shares of AXU). HL has to go to 9 USF to deliver equivalent AXU 1.35 CDN, or HL 17 for AXU equiv 2.50 CDN. On the downside he's still disparaging commenters he disagreed with now that their skepticism has been justified and he now agrees with them. (matt: "...
while HL went in and did their DD ..." - and they came up with 47 USF/share plus the buyout on the streaming agreement). I'll let you figure that one out.
Temporarily HL has been crashing for the last couple of days, but will come back after the closing and assuming silver price moves again. On the other hand, maybe Wheaton is the play here: not a fixed number of HL shares to clear the streaming agreement but shares issued to be settled the day of closing! The lower HL goes, the more shares they get. And Wheaton is at recent lows due to silver tanking.
Anyway: Source Yahoo finance. Closing date for AXU acquisition Sept 7th. We may not see 8/31 short numbers before the closing date.
HL Shares Short (Jul 29, 2022) 21.94M
HL Shares Short (Jun 30, 2022) 15.79M
HL Shares short (5/31/2022) 12.59MM
Hard to say what these increasing short postions mean.
...
From my post, AXU board, 7/7/22:
"There's a clue buried in the news release [of 7/5/22], but I'll leave it for you to find. No hints."
...
It seems matt clued into the clue in my 7/7 post: "
Hecla is the largest silver miner in North America and have been successfully mining thin veins ..."
From the AXU news release 7/5: Statement by C Nauman:
"There is no doubt that we have fallen well behind the development and production plan at Keno Hill – and our original estimate of achieving commercial production in early 2022" ... “By partnering with Hecla, an industry leader in high-grade narrow vein silver mining, we further position Keno Hill to achieve its full potential."
I do have hopes for Hecla itself, as a long-time established producer, but as noted in my HL 8/5 post: "Hecla's got to go to 17 USF to make AXU equivalent worth even $2.50 CDN again.", and as noted above if HL goes to the high of last year ($9) AXU equivalent price would be $1.35 CDN.
I hope matt's AXU share cost (if he has any) is well below CDN $2.50 - in the last 30 years the high for HL has been about 14 USF, and 12 USF in 2008.
Just multiply HL USF by 0.15 for the shortcut price of AXU CDN equiv.