RE:3. Even more speculationsDon't buy another company Chen you fked up cylance Biggly.. resign instead. stock will gain on that even alone.
Yasch22 wrote: There are loads of wild cards.
1. The patent sale could be great, good, or not very good. Ask yourself: What's the $ number that disappoints you? Pleases you? Knocks your socks off?
(a) $1b or less would feel like a real comedown for me. If $1b is enough to cause a spike of $2, I'd be tempted to sell off. To be honest, any run-up caused by our beloved apes should inspire a sell-off, followed by a practically guaranteed return to "normal."
(b) $1.5 to $2b would be good.
(c) $2.5b or higher would be fantastic.
2. Once the patent sale is done, investors will all return to basics. Key questions: How much will the IoT and CyberSecurity divisions grow in Q3 and Q4?
3. But wait a minute.... The patent sale will still have a transformative effect on everyone's expectations. Even an extra $1b means a new mass of cash in the kitty. It also means BB will be able to buy another company or two as meaningful to the company's future as Cylance was.
-- Sidenote: It may be true that BB could have made a better deal with Cylance, but it remains a brilliant acquisition, and made it possible for BB to stay competitive in enterprise software.
4. There are a large number of potential developments in the next two years that could lead to another WSB-inspired run-up. I've seen posts at StockTwits and Reddit suggesting that $500m from a patent sale would be pretty good. It would be nice to have some skin in the game every single time we get one of these spikes. On the other hand I'd want to take some profits every time it happens, despite knowing that it's impossible to ever get the timing just right.
Generally speaking, any run-up caused by our beloved apes should inspire a sell-off, followed by a practically guaranteed return to "normal" caused by profit-taking. Ideally, Chen and his successor will start scoring regular annual outperforming increments of revenue and EPS. Even the Globe and Mail will start running regular stories about "BlackBerry's amazing recovery" and "John Chen's affirmation as this era's turnaround king."