Thanks for sharing Red, it is clear you put a lot of effort into this.

Cheers

red2000 wrote: Just reload my homemade very conservative calculation with new settings :

1) Avg. price of all boe/d   78$ CDN  for the 1st 6 months.
2) Avg. price of all boe/d 100$ CDN for the last 6 months of 2022.
3) 1st 6 months all FCF pay down debt. FCF at only 24% of Revenues !
4) Q3 + Q4 : Dividend of 0,05/Sh. per Quarter.
5) Also in Q3 and Q4 Buyback shares for 5% === 28,2 M Out. Sh. at an avg. : 5,25$.
6) Include Hedge at 68$ for 42% of production of 81,500 boe/d.

Note: As you can see I am not taking care of all others factors, Exchange rate, WCS, Nat gaz or NGL price, interest saving, etc.. and CLEARWATER not added. !

I used this method with monthly WTI price for each quarter in 2021 an my error margin was only 1,2%.

ROLL THE DICES....

Description Details Boe/d : 81 500
Avg. WTI $ - 2022 yearly  78$ - 100$ 
Revenues Yearly    2 354 476 320  $
NetBack 61% X Rev.    1 436 230 555  $
Ajust. Fund Flow 43% X Rev.       988 880 054  $
FCF 24% X Rev.       517 984 790  $
Debt paid 20% X AFF or else       239 505 354  $
Buy back  5,25$ X 28,2M        148 050 000  $
Dividend  0,10/ Sh          56 400 000  $
Cash left Yearly         74 029 436  $
    Debt Q1 Q2
    Buyback + div Q3 Q4

So what is your Share/price value if that happen ???

For me,  a minimum call between 6 to 8$ !!! Probably on a bumpy road !!!

Ending dec. 2021, I expect to see with Year End Results an Enterprise Value of 4B$ !
Which is worthing per share : 4B$ divided by 564M out. Sh. === 7,09$ still without financial ratio use on TSX stock !!!

GL LONGS, we deserve it !