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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Alternate Symbol(s):  BTEGF

Baytex Energy Corp is an oil and gas company. Geographically, the group operates in Canada and the United States. The company derives a majority of revenue from Canada. Its Canada segment includes the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas in Western Canada.

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Baytex Energy Corp > Anyone know why...
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Anyone know why...

CoachAmI (16) | August 04, 2022 09:24 am

....BTE gets hit so much harder (% wise) than it's peers in these down times?  Yesterday, it dropped double (% wise) than many others that I was watching.

RE:Anyone know why...

BayStreetWolfTO (7327) | August 04, 2022 09:29 am

Tough to say CA, maybe trying to bring it more into line with TSX Energy Cap.


BTE currently 6th YTD but many other names <50%



SYMBOL NAME YTD %CHANGE 
SDE-T Spartan Delta Corp 106.70%
PD-T Precision Drilling Corp 92.91%
VET-T Vermilion Energy Inc 89.37%
TOU-T Tourmaline Oil Corp 85.41%
ATH-T Athabasca Oil Corp 81.51%
BTE-T Baytex Energy Corp 54.48%
ARX-T Arc Resources Ltd 51.13%
NVA-T Nuvista Energy Ltd 50.43%
BIR-T Birchcliff Energy Ltd 46.59%
CVE-T Cenovus Energy Inc 44.42%
AAV-T Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd 43.86%
PEY-T Peyto Exploration and Dvlpmnt Corp 43.70%
MEG-T Meg Energy Corp 36.15%
CPG-T Crescent Point Energy Corp 36.00%
SU-T Suncor Energy Inc 30.52%
PSK-T Prairiesky Royalty Ltd 28.83%
CNQ-T Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. 25.16%
IMO-T Imperial Oil 24.75%
ERF-T Enerplus Corp 23.91%
PSI-T Pason Systems Inc 23.05%
WCP-T Whitecap Resources Inc 20.69%
TPZ-T Topaz Energy Corp 20.17%
SES-T Secure Energy Services Inc 18.25%
FRU-T Freehold Royalties Ltd 18.20%
POU-T Paramount Resources Ltd 12.48%
HWX-T Headwater Exploration Inc 12.23%
PXT-T Parex Resources Inc 6.76%
TVE-T Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd 3.64%


CoachAmI wrote: ....BTE gets hit so much harder (% wise) than it's peers in these down times?  Yesterday, it dropped double (% wise) than many others that I was watching.


RE:Anyone know why...

Cobalt (556) | August 04, 2022 09:43 am

My first guess would be relative debt levels , higher the relative debt the higher the volatility?

RE:RE:Anyone know why...

Canukiwi (65) | August 04, 2022 09:49 am

.....and relative number of shares.

RE:Anyone know why...

1condor (270) | August 04, 2022 09:55 am

And it continues...investors rotating their oil and gas profits over to the techology sector. You guys are seeing this right? I expect it so accelerate...so BTE has considerably more downside from here in the short term.

RE:RE:Anyone know why...

Cobalt (556) | August 04, 2022 10:00 am

Ya they talking lower profits in 23 now, AUG 23 oil is down to $82 next year , but we know better ;P

1condor wrote: And it continues...investors rotating their oil and gas profits over to the techology sector. You guys are seeing this right? I expect it so accelerate...so BTE has considerably more downside from here in the short term.


RE:RE:RE:Anyone know why...

Cobalt (556) | August 04, 2022 10:12 am

Saudi Arabia Lifts Crude Prices To Asia To Record High

RE:Anyone know why...

deepblue (74) | August 04, 2022 09:59 am

I believe Bte is mainly heavy oil.

RE:Anyone know why...

scienceguy36 (100) | August 04, 2022 10:41 am

CoachAmI wrote: ....BTE gets hit so much harder (% wise) than it's peers in these down times?  Yesterday, it dropped double (% wise) than many others that I was watching.


If you read the two presentations of BTE and CJ (or any other company that is unhedged, low float and low debt) very thoroughly, i think you can come up with a better answer to your question than what is being offered.
It is very apparent that even many analysists or bloggers that write about some of these companies have not read the financial statements themselves but are regurgitating what others have incorrectly implied.
It is human nature to spin the positives of a company that one is invested in. You can get a lot of good information from these discussion boards but always keeping in mind that most of what is offered is self promotion. If you get in the habit of fact checking what is said (either positive or negative) and reading and comparing financial documents from different companies it makes it alot easier to ride the ups and downs knowing that you have done your due diligence and not be swayed to buy or sell by what others spin.
Some things you can't control but don't let others control the things that you can by being prepared.

Sorry for being long winded, but seeing this question i could almost anticipate the answers. None of the replies answered your question IMO. I think you can get a much better answer by reading and comparing a couple of financial statements.

Microsoft PowerPoint - August Presentation.pptx (baytexenergy.com)

https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2022/07/28/cardinal-energy-ltd-announces-record-second-quarter-2022-operating-and-financial


RE:RE:Anyone know why...

BayStreetWolfTO (7327) | August 04, 2022 10:46 am

Scienceguy, I agree you need to determine your metrics. Since you mentioned CJ yes right now they are in good shape but you need to understand the downside in all names

For instance CJ is looking good now but with a drop to $70 not my first pick.If you are confident $90+ it is a good hold

This chart helps detail the downside risk in $70 oil

Again is confident oil will be $90+ it could change your views


User image

RE:RE:RE:Anyone know why...

BayStreetWolfTO (7327) | August 04, 2022 10:52 am

I do think his chart has an error for SGY. It is not zero. I believe they are around 15% at $70

BayStreetWolfTO wrote: Scienceguy, I agree you need to determine your metrics. Since you mentioned CJ yes right now they are in good shape but you need to understand the downside in all names

For instance CJ is looking good now but with a drop to $70 not my first pick.If you are confident $90+ it is a good hold

This chart helps detail the downside risk in $70 oil

Again is confident oil will be $90+ it could change your views


User image


RE:RE:RE:Anyone know why...

JohnnyDoe (580) | August 04, 2022 11:15 am

BayStreetWolfTO wrote: Scienceguy, I agree you need to determine your metrics. Since you mentioned CJ yes right now they are in good shape but you need to understand the downside in all names

For instance CJ is looking good now but with a drop to $70 not my first pick.If you are confident $90+ it is a good hold

This chart helps detail the downside risk in $70 oil

Again is confident oil will be $90+ it could change your views


User image

I wonder about the validity of these charts from Nuttall. CJ just produced 22k/day in Q2. At 70 wti, that is 562m in annualized revenue. At 8% fcf, that's not enough fcf to pay CJ's dividend. CJ says their current dividend is safe at 55. CJ's declaration about the safety of their dividend and that chart don't tell the same story.

RE:RE:RE:RE:Anyone know why...

BayStreetWolfTO (7327) | August 04, 2022 11:24 am

JD, I think you would have to look at netback

CJ netback in Q1-22 was $50.47
Baytex netback in Q1-22 was $54.91 (with tough hedges)


I'm not sure what the CJ netback is at $70....Q1 Average WTI was $95.

This is why it is critical in a down trend for investors to know the numbers.

I can't speak to how good EN charts are...but what are companies making "net" is very important





JohnnyDoe wrote:
BayStreetWolfTO wrote: Scienceguy, I agree you need to determine your metrics. Since you mentioned CJ yes right now they are in good shape but you need to understand the downside in all names

For instance CJ is looking good now but with a drop to $70 not my first pick.If you are confident $90+ it is a good hold

This chart helps detail the downside risk in $70 oil

Again is confident oil will be $90+ it could change your views


User image

I wonder about the validity of these charts from Nuttall. CJ just produced 22k/day in Q2. At 70 wti, that is 562m in annualized revenue. At 8% fcf, that's not enough fcf to pay CJ's dividend. CJ says their current dividend is safe at 55. CJ's declaration about the safety of their dividend and that chart don't tell the same story.


RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Anyone know why...

scienceguy36 (100) | August 04, 2022 11:54 am

This is a good example of how a financial statement can be given a spin. Netback without the final adjusted funds flow does not give an honest picture of the financial health of a company. I am not here to promote any company but just to point out that one has to due their own due diligence instead of relying on what others post.

EX.

BTE Q2



CJ Q2


RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Anyone know why...

scienceguy36 (100) | August 04, 2022 11:56 am


Q2 BTE
Operating netback (2) $ 66.98   $ 54.91   $ 33.92   $ 61.07   $ 31.90  
General and administrative   (1.54 )   (1.61 )   (1.44 )   (1.57 )   (1.34 )
Cash financing and interest   (2.71 )   (2.81 )   (3.19 )   (2.76 )   (3.31 )
Realized financial derivatives loss   (16.41 )   (11.59 )   (5.28 )   (14.04 )   (4.13 )
Other (4)   (0.60 )   (0.48 )   (0.20 )   (0.56 )   (0.15 )
Adjusted funds flow (1) $ 45.72   $  

Q2 CJ

etback ($/boe)(1)              
Petroleum and natural gas revenue   112.91     60.68   86       103.90     56.16   85  
Royalties   (22.84 )   (10.54 ) 117       (20.82 )   (9.18 ) 127  
Net operating expenses(1)   (22.69 )   (21.56 ) 5       (23.49 )   (21.47 ) 9  
Transportation expenses   (0.87 )   (0.30 ) 190       (0.75 )   (0.30 ) 150  
Netback(1)   66.51     28.28   135       58.84     25.21   133  
Realized loss on commodity contracts   -     (8.40 ) (100 )     -     (8.37 ) (100 )
Interest and other   (0.95 )   (2.07 ) (54 )     (1.03 )   (2.15 ) (52 )
G&A   (2.25 )   (2.32 ) (3 )     (2.44 )   (2.08 ) 17  
Adjusted funds flow(1)   63.31      

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Anyone know why...

BayStreetWolfTO (7327) | August 04, 2022 12:06 pm

Exactly....now look to 2023 and adjust for the Realized financial derivatives loss and Interest...which will be much different in 2023.

But yes lots of ways to spin it...I'm looking at 2023

Also don't forget G&A as prices drop what is the carry cost of overhead when smaller...

Not here to argue just know what you own


scienceguy36 wrote:
Q2 BTE
Operating netback (2) $ 66.98   $ 54.91   $ 33.92   $ 61.07   $ 31.90  
General and administrative   (1.54 )   (1.61 )   (1.44 )   (1.57 )   (1.34 )
Cash financing and interest   (2.71 )   (2.81 )   (3.19 )   (2.76 )   (3.31 )
Realized financial derivatives loss   (16.41 )   (11.59 )   (5.28 )   (14.04 )   (4.13 )
Other (4)   (0.60 )   (0.48 )   (0.20 )   (0.56 )   (0.15 )
Adjusted funds flow (1) $ 45.72   $  

Q2 CJ

etback ($/boe)(1)              
Petroleum and natural gas revenue   112.91     60.68   86       103.90     56.16   85  
Royalties   (22.84 )   (10.54 ) 117       (20.82 )   (9.18 ) 127  
Net operating expenses(1)   (22.69 )   (21.56 ) 5       (23.49 )   (21.47 ) 9  
Transportation expenses   (0.87 )   (0.30 ) 190       (0.75 )   (0.30 ) 150  
Netback(1)   66.51     28.28   135       58.84     25.21   133  
Realized loss on commodity contracts   -     (8.40 ) (100 )     -     (8.37 ) (100 )
Interest and other   (0.95 )   (2.07 ) (54 )     (1.03 )   (2.15 ) (52 )
G&A   (2.25 )   (2.32 ) (3 )     (2.44 )   (2.08 ) 17  
Adjusted funds flow(1)   63.31      


RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Anyone know why...

BayStreetWolfTO (7327) | August 04, 2022 12:03 pm

Sure lets go right down to Cash Flow From Continuing Operating Activities reported by the TMX

We all know Cash Flow Statement is the king. 

Q1 Average WTI $95

CJ  CFOA $50M
BTE CFOA  $162M

CJ Share Out 162M
BTE Share Out 555M

CJ CFOA per share $0.308
BTE CFOA per share $0.358

But yes I agree spin can distract.

As some say show me the cash....don't forget BTE far worse hedges in 2022.

Cash flow statement is the biggest over looked item

Of course ONLY MY OPINION...follow the cash....









scienceguy36 wrote: This is a good example of how a financial statement can be given a spin. Netback without the final adjusted funds flow does not give an honest picture of the financial health of a company. I am not here to promote any company but just to point out that one has to due their own due diligence instead of relying on what others post.

EX.

BTE Q2



CJ Q2




RE:RE:RE:Anyone know why...

JohnnyDoe (580) | August 04, 2022 11:29 am

BayStreetWolfTO wrote: Scienceguy, I agree you need to determine your metrics. Since you mentioned CJ yes right now they are in good shape but you need to understand the downside in all names

For instance CJ is looking good now but with a drop to $70 not my first pick.If you are confident $90+ it is a good hold

This chart helps detail the downside risk in $70 oil

Again is confident oil will be $90+ it could change your views


User image

here's what CJ said about their dividend when they announced it " When setting the initial rate for the reinstatement of the dividend, Cardinals Board of Directors took into account the backwardation of the one year price curve for WTI crude oil, current debt levels and the sustainability of the dividend in the case of a significant drop in oil prices. The Company's goal is to sustain this level of a monthly dividend with a long-term oil price down to US$55/bbl. At this oil price level, Cardinal expects it could fund the dividend, required ARO expenditures and a capital program maintaining its base production. As the Company continues with its debt reduction strategy and interest costs are reduced, this base oil price level to fund our outlays could also be lowered"
based on Nuttall's chart, at 70 wti using his fcf percentage there wouldn't be enough fcf to pay the dividend. Something doesn't add up.

RE:RE:RE:RE:Anyone know why...

BayStreetWolfTO (7327) | August 04, 2022 11:35 am

JD, reposting. do you know what the CJ netback is at $70 or say $55?

Sorry I don't know.


This was my prior post

JD, I think you would have to look at netback


CJ netback in Q1-22 was $50.47
Baytex netback in Q1-22 was $54.91 (with tough hedges)


I'm not sure what the CJ netback is at $70....Q1 Average WTI was $95.



JohnnyDoe wrote:
BayStreetWolfTO wrote: Scienceguy, I agree you need to determine your metrics. Since you mentioned CJ yes right now they are in good shape but you need to understand the downside in all names

For instance CJ is looking good now but with a drop to $70 not my first pick.If you are confident $90+ it is a good hold

This chart helps detail the downside risk in $70 oil

Again is confident oil will be $90+ it could change your views


User image

here's what CJ said about their dividend when they announced it " When setting the initial rate for the reinstatement of the dividend, Cardinals Board of Directors took into account the backwardation of the one year price curve for WTI crude oil, current debt levels and the sustainability of the dividend in the case of a significant drop in oil prices. The Company's goal is to sustain this level of a monthly dividend with a long-term oil price down to US$55/bbl. At this oil price level, Cardinal expects it could fund the dividend, required ARO expenditures and a capital program maintaining its base production. As the Company continues with its debt reduction strategy and interest costs are reduced, this base oil price level to fund our outlays could also be lowered"
based on Nuttall's chart, at 70 wti using his fcf percentage there wouldn't be enough fcf to pay the dividend. Something doesn't add up.