RE:AECO SpotTHIS SPREAD IS INDEED ANNOYING and costly..here is some info:
Henry Hub is a natural gas pipeline located in Erath, Louisiana that serves as the official delivery location for futures contracts on the NYMEX ..so its a big phyiscal distance from ALBERTA ie 2 separate markets - localized factors in each determines the price....
for Nat Gas prices falling in general - its all about the Cheniere LNG facility off-line - it was shipping 2 bill cu ft of LNG a day (thats roughly 20% of US daily ouput)..Easy, now you have this 2 bill cu ft that is now deemed "stranded" in the USA, and Canada was backfilling on US domestic demand...not happening now..we are furthur from the source allowing for increased ALBERTA gas into local storage..where as the US is still using at least some of this stranded gas to satisfy localized higher demand due to sustained heat waves. Canadian gas can help but their is only so much infrastructure for shipping our gas to alternative markets...good news is rumours that the Cheniere LNG will be able to at least partially restart come Sept...
Finally, i wouldn't put it past that there is some opportunistic arbitrage futures trading and you can bet some-ones making alot of money on this spread...regards, dwdc