RE:How are they going to pay for Greenstone?Concojones wrote: Let's say it costs $800m if we assume a very slight cost overrun due to inflation. This is the amount they need to cough up in 2 years.
If they sold their entire equity portfolio today, and paid off all debt, they'd have maybe $100m in the bank, if that (due to Solaris / copper price fall).
If gold stays at $1800 (that's a very big "if" in a rising rate environment) they could make $400m from operations if they stop all nonsustaining capex ($160m this year) in all mines.
If they max out their debt, they could make up the difference ($400m).
If gold doesn't hold at $1800 in a world where all asset classes are falling due to rising rates, they won't have the money.
Am I missing something or does their budget seem over-optimistic to you too?
Please only reply if you've done this analysis.
Update with new assumptions:
$700m capex
$100m in the bank (like I said this depends on value of their equity portfolio)
Stop spending growth capex on other mines
$1350 AISC (= H2 guidance + $50/oz corporate)
700koz in 2023
At $1800 gold, they could complete Greenstone without extra financing and pay off their convertible debt.
At $1500 gold, they'd need an extra $400m (seems feasible with debt, no dilution)