KEG Royalties Income Fund T.KEG.UN

Store visit - some feedback

[logicandinertia]

went to a Keg last night in a region of the GTA still open and spoke to manager.  Observations:

Patio was full, and they are trying to keep open for as long as possible.  by this time last year, was shut, but with heaters and unseasonably warm weather, going to keep it going.

REstaurant inside was close to capacity (50%)

Getting lots of spillover from those regions like Peel/Toronto that are still closed. 

Usually see big holiday party business but with limits to party size and overall restaurant capacity, won't see as much this holiday season.

Demographic that hasn't returned is seniors, and expect big pent up demand from this group when effective vaccine is distributed.  Demographic that was most evident last night was millenials and families.  

Opined that they hoped to gain share due to closing of some competitors (i.e. Canyon Creek but there are others), and maybe more importantly, there are usually a spate of new entrants which come in and compete in any given year.  with covid, there has been almost no new "dine-in" competitors targeting Keg business.   This is maybe as important as those existing competitors leaving the market.   

Considering that this was a Monday night, the traffic and relatively full parking lot surprised me.  

Keg has historical brand power among Canadians, good locations, not unreasonable pricing, consistent quality (hard to mess up meat), and aims to benefit from the consolidation in the market. for patient investors, collect the dividend and wait for the vaccine(s) to play out.   

Good luck...

[HermannHaller]

Thx, interesting observations. Of course the temperature was well above average, which won't last long. My view on this is that the next six months will probably be bad. More closures, possibly dividend put on hold. But KEG, with a big parent company, will survive. And by next summer, with pent up demand, and less competition, business will be booming. It's tough to know when to buy and

[logicandinertia]

Considering that Keg didn't cut its dividend to $0 when ALL stores were closed in spring and the interest from the Keg loan provides quarterly revenue without traffic, I respectfully disagree about them cutting the dividend to 0.  The GTA lockdown had been announced (and there was no vaccine visibility) when they announced the increase to the dividend a couple of weeks ago.  I view

[HermannHaller]

I hope you're right. Case numbers these days are worrisome. I'm holding on for the long term

[flamingogold]

Keg will be a survivor even in the worst case scenario there is a lockdown again. I am tired of Big Macs and Tim's donuts and bagels and all the rest just like them. Nothing beats a great steak and Keg leads the pack for the best in service and quality. If this gets cheap again I am a buyer.

[HermannHaller]

Tired of Tim's donuts??? I'm tempted to put you on 'ignore' for such an egregious comment. LOL KEG.un is gradually looking up. Maybe more people recognize outlook with vaccine. A lot of beat up value stocks doing well this week. good luck.

[flamingogold]

Hermann, I'm disappointed with the decision to extend the lockdown of indoor dining. Here in the GTA indoor dining has been shuttered for 28 days and because of rising cases they just extended it another 28 days. If cases are rising even though indoor dining has been closed during that period, obviously the spread is originating from other sources. So, why continue to punish just the

[HermannHaller]

I agree with everything you wrote. I wish the government could take a better, more targetted approach. I just think, with case numbers going up, and ICU beds going up, politicians want to show they are doing 'something', and that means more lockdowns. Manitoba has locked down everything except schools, including all retail. Ontario and Alberta getting pressure from doctors. Look out!

[flamingogold]

Exactly, politicians need to show they are doing "something" and indoor dining is an easy scapegoat. Is it a coincidence that the case counts started to balloon at the beginning of September when schools resumed. Don't elementary and junior school kids have to demask to eat their lunches? Aren't most schools suffering from old, outdated air ventilatation systems? Detroit