Nutrien Ltd T.NTR

Alternate Symbol(s): NTR

Chemicals Basic Materials

Nutrien Ltd. is a Canada-based company, which is a provider of crop inputs and services. The Company operates through four segments: Nutrien Ag Solutions (Retail), Potash, Nitrogen and Phosphate. The Retail segment distributes crop nutrients, crop protection products, seeds and merchandise, and it provides services directly to growers through a network of farm centers in North America, South America and Australia. Its Retail business includes Nutrien Ag Solutions and Landmark Retail businesses, which provide agricultural solutions, including nutrients, crop protection products, seed, services and agronomic advice to growers. The Potash, Nitrogen and Phosphate segments are differentiated by the chemical nutrients contained in the products that it produces. The Company produces and distributes over 27 million tons of potash, nitrogen and phosphate products for agricultural, industrial and feed customers worldwide. It operates approximately 2,000 retail locations in over seven countries.

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Nutrien Ltd

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Post by retiredcfon Feb 22, 2022 8:16am

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Post# 34449411

TD Upgrade

Raise their target by 3 bucks to US$91.00. GLTA

Nutrien Ltd.

(NTR-N) US$77.17

Q4/21 Beat; 2022 Guidance Above Expectations; Reiterating BUY Event

NTR delivered its highest-ever quarterly earnings (despite Q4 not being NTR's seasonally strongest quarter), which were above expectations.
2022 guidance was introduced. The midpoints of NTR's 2022 adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS guidance ranges are ~9% and ~13% above pre-quarter consensus, respectively. Specifically, NTR guided to 2022 adjusted EBITDA of $10.0bln–$11.2bln ($10.6bln midpoint) vs. pre-quarter consensus of $9.75bln. In addition, NTR guided to 2022 adjusted EPS of $10.20–$11.80 ($11.00 midpoint) vs. pre-quarter consensus of $9.76.

Impact: POSITIVE

Adjusted EBITDA was $2,463mm (+221% y/y) vs. consensus/TD at $2,426mm/$2,414mm. Adjusted EPS was $2.47 vs. consensus/TD at $2.38/ $2.34.
Nutrien projects 2022 global potash deliveries of 68mm–71mm tonnes (essentially flat y/y vs. the record 70mm tonnes in 2021). Management expects to realize record potash sales volumes of 13.7mm–14.3mm tonnes in 2022, although NTR indicated that it is capable of ramping up production if the sanctions on Belarus wind up, having a more significant impact on global supply. For nitrogen, NTR expects 2022 sales volume growth of 3% y/y (at the midpoint of guidance), supported by the completion of Phase 1 of its nitrogen brownfield expansion projects and higher anticipated operating rates. On the retail side, NTR continues to convey positive outlook commentary for 2022.
NTR sees potential to generate CFO of $7.5bln–$8.4bln in 2022. Regarding capital allocation, Nutrien announced a $0.02/share increase in its quarterly dividend (now $0.48/share) and a new NCIB (up to 10% of shares outstanding). Note, NTR's adjusted EPS guidance assumes a minimum of $2bln of share repurchases in 2022.
We have made various adjustments to our model, which have driven increases in our estimates.

TD Investment Conclusion

We remain encouraged by strong agriculture fundamentals and historically elevated fertilizer prices, which we see as supportive of NTR's outlook and share price. We reiterate our BUY rating.