RE:RE:RE:Makes a person wonder....Most of last year's gas to oil subsitution has been undone by now.
Oil growth now is in India, and greater Asia (ie China and its surrounding countries - Indnoesia etc)
India is going off - its where China was a decade plus ago. Just look at how many airports India is planing on building this decade. Or the 30+ km of new highways they are building every day.
Russia only has about 3.5mb exported by ship. Most of its oil pipelines are down. Moving Russian oil around from one customer to another, doesn't make much of a difference. India and China will take whatever is cheapest (after paying for ice breakers etc), but there isn't that much Russian oil for them.
Many still expect US oil production to increase this year. Many models assume 500k-1m additional barrels of oil to come from the US this year. The decline in oil rigs and well productivity, indicates this won't happen. US oil rigs are now lower than year ago numbers. Its likely US production actually declines this year
US deisel demand has finally turned upwards (its earlier decline was likely the result of retailers selling down their excess covid related inventory, thus needing less trucks etc). Supply chains seem to be back to normal now, with shipping costs back where they were pre covid - thus resulting in more normalized deisel consumption.
Brazil was the other place new supply was expected to come from. But Brazil is down about 500mb this year (down, not up).
Right now the US media is pushing a BS story that Russia isn't cutting its production. By the end of the third quarter the US media won't be able to avoid mentioning that US oil production is in decline, and a 1-2 million plus expected barrels (from US and Brazil) arn't there.
Imagine what that change in narrative will do to oil prices. What happens in Europe doesn't matter.
There are basically 4 billion barrels of accessable oil in inventories around the world.
By the end of this year there will probably be 350mb ish less barrels in global inventories.
Next year will probably draw 700mb - 1 billion.
After that, you're a couple of years away from zero. It will never get to zero because price will adjust up to make that last barrel essentially infinatly expensive (you get the idea) - but once people get a hint of global oil inventories disappearing anticipate a price reaction.
As for solar and wind - the entropy gradiant is too small for those methods to work on their own. They are a dead end when it comes to mass consumer use. Nuclear will fill that gap, but even the promising modula units are a 2030 sort of thing. Thats 7 years of no mans land to cross before any kind of nuclear rescue. Its going to be an interesting decade, during which all roads lead to oil