OK,  So here is what I have found....   And Why I personally believe a Dilutive  Cash Investment is Critical for PATs future success and lifeline....

Yes... there are a total of 23 contracts per January 2022 PAT Corporate Investor Deck, but nothing specified as only Platform.  And being a "Corporate Investor Deck" its a combination of Platform and Xtract business, and therefore 23 Platform and Xtract contracts combined!    

 

That tells me this…

 

$50 Million Investment Prospectus / January 5, 2022 (on SEDAR)

On January 5, 2022 PAT posted the $50M Investment Prospectus on Sedar.  In it they reference a total of $5.7M in contracts splits between Platform & Xtract.  Platform had 12 contracts valued at $2.7M paid over 3 years (on average $75K in sales revenue per month for 36 months...aka backlog of $5.7M).  And 7 contracts, I bellieve all Canadian Govt based - IDEAs, Supercluster, etc.) of $3.0M, with no payment timeline.  I suspect minium of 2-year payout (on average $125K Per month...aka $3M backlog).

  • Total $5.7M in Contracts (aka backlog in receiving payments of 2-3 years)
  • Platform:  12 Contracts of $2.7M (paid over 3 year, which average out to about $75K per month...aka $2.7M backlog)
  • 7 CAD contracts of $3.0M (probably paid over 2 years or average $125K month...aka $3.0M backlog)

 

PAT Corporate Deck - Page 12 / January 2022 (posted sometime late January 2022)

Then the updated PAT Corporate Deck appears mid-to-end January 2022 with Page 12 providing shareholders with an Sales update.   Total of 23 contracts with backlog of $5.8M, of which $2.1M of current backlog is pending successful trials, (per footnote on Page 12).  Xtract does not have its own page or section, nor sales, so being a Corpproate Deck, Xtract 7 contracts are embedded into Page 12 of the Corporate Deck, so these are already baked into the 23 Contracts, along with the 12 Platform sales contracts.  So an additional 4 Sales complete in January 2022.  

NOTE:   $2.1M pending trial success of $5.8M makes for  36% of all sales $'s are pending successful trials with the client.  However, if 100% of $3.0M in Xtract Sales are CAD Govt Guaranteed...  then basically $2.1M in pending sales post 31 clients' trial successes is on the $2.8M Platform sales...  So it appears 75% of $2.8M Platform sales $ are pending the 31 successful client trials.

  • 23 Contracts   —   this includes 19 from Jan 5, 2022 (12 Platform/7 Xtract), Plus 4 new contracts added between Jan 5-31.
  • $5.8M Backlog* (Technically $3.7M Backlog, as $2.1M of current Backlog per *Astrix on Page 12 is pending successful client trials)
  • 31 Client Trials. (represent pending $2.1M in trial successes)
  • $42M Qualified Pipeline…. Not in contract at this time…. just along sales pipe from Opportunity Discovery to Trials to Finalizing Agreement Terms.
  • *$2.1M of the current backlog is pending successful trial.  If Xtract's contract are 100% guaranteed on $3.0M.  Then $2.1M of Platform sales of $2.8M Backlog are pending clients' trial successes or 75%
 

End of Q2, FY2022. - January 31, 2022

Therefore, at the beginning of January (Jan 5, 2022) there were a total of 19 contracts (12 platform/7 Xtract) with a contract value of $5.7M (basically a backlog, due to the 2-3 year payout on these 19 contracts…and some of which is pending successful trials)

 

Sometime Mid-to-end of January, the 19 total contract grew to 23 total contracts, so an additional of 4 Contract.  

Now capturing an estimated $200K in backlog revenue during January (i.e: from $75K Platform & 125K Xtract), that would mean these 4 additional contracts secured an additional $300K in sales.   $5.7M - less $200K received + $300K on 4 new contracts (over 2-3 year term)  = $5.8M ….   Broken into $3M Xtract (2-year payout) and $2.8M Platform (3-year payoff) = $125K + $77.8K = $202.8K per month or $608,400 per quarter.

 

  • $3.0M Average Quarterly Burn Rate over last year (not include Raytheon’s $1.8M offset to Q1, FY2022 Operating costs)
  • $6.98M Cash In bank on October 31, 2021:  
  • $600-610K in estimated sales revenue per quarter (Based not he above documents - $50M Investment Prospectus and January 2022 Corporate Deck 
  • January 2022 Growth Rate:   4 contracts with estimate of $300K Sales value. (Based on info above Jan 5, '22 Prospectus & Jan '22 Corp Deck
  • $2.1M of $5.8M of current backlog is pending successful trial (as noted in Corporate deck posted at end of January 2022)
  • MARCH 15, 2022 - Q2, FY2022 MD&A DUE ON SEDAR & TO SHAREHOLDERS

ALL COMES DOWN TO THIS....

 

$6.98M CASH AT END OF Q1, FY2022. (OCTOBER 31, 2022)

   -  LESS $3.2M AVERAGE QRTLY BURN (for Q2) 

   + PLUS $610K SALES REVENUE  (for Q2)
   -  LESS $1.6M IN QUARTERLY BURN FOR PART OF Q3 

   + PLUS $200K SALES REVENUE  (for 1/2 of Q3)
 

MY PERSONAL ESTIMATE BY MARCH 15, 2022
= $2.99M Cash In Bank for March 15, 2022,
   + PLUS ANY ADDITIONAL SALES REVENUE from February 1 - March 15, 2022

 

 

NOW WHAT I DON'T GET IS THE REFERENCE TO THE $12.1M IN WORKING CAPITAL REFERENCED ON CAPITAL STRUCTURE / PAGE 19 OF January 2022 PAT CORPORATE DECK

DOES THIS INCLUDE $6.98M CASH IN BANK (OCTOBER 31, 2022), PLUS $5.7M IN SALES (PAID OVER 24-36 MONTHS) = $12.6M????  

CAN SOMEONE EXPLAIN THAT TO ME????