I am not sure Germany is in as much trouble as we think they are or at least not as much as Eastern Europe.

The message I see being repeated by Germany is we have to conserve but at these conservation levels we will have enough energy for the coming winter.  It is basically a keep calm message but one that still implies a we have to be careful attitude for two reasons.  

One they don't want panic and hoarding( if you can) or a mass exodus (if you can) but they want to send a message that they are in some trouble.to the population but mostly to the Russians.  

Because Two:  They want to suckle at the teat of Nord Stream 1 as long as they can and if the Russians think they are going to lose leverage because the Germans are okay they will cut back supplies more than they already have.  

I think the Germans are playing a rope-a-dope and they are filling their inventories faster than expected or are telling anyone as the more they can get stored the more they can not only survive this winter but help their EU allies to whom they have become the defacto caregiver.

They have very badly miscalculated once but I am not inclined to believe they will do it again.

I think NG demand will stay high as they will want to top up and stay topped up at every opportunity.

But if they get a chance to cut off Russian gas and stick a finger in Putin's eye, they will.

We will just have to hope the Russians have an Elba for their Napoleon.

And that Peyto will keep selling at high prices and low costs.


Yasch22 wrote: A relatively small number of countries will temporarily expand coal-fired power. Germany for example.

Under Angela Merkel's long tenure (2005-2021), Germany made a horrible miscalculation with regard to imports of Russian gas. Merkel figured that interdependence would serve several purposes. Mainly, she wanted to tame Putin's imperial ambitions, and fold him into the western system governed by rule of law. She also figured she could speed up the weaning of Germany from reliance on coal and nuclear. (Strangely, nuclear power has been more of a bete noir to Germany's massive green movement than coal or oil.)

There will be hell to pay in Europe this coming winter. After that, unless Putin does something even more stupid than invading Ukraine, Europe will be out of the woods.

Meanwhile, both Asia and Europe continue to go pedal to the metal on renewables. China has installed more than half of the world's wind and solar capacity for the past four years. Europe too is expanding solar, wind, and battery storage, but they're also taking conservation a lot more seriously. E.g., slower highway speeds, turning down the thermostat in winter, and up for the summer AC). 

There will probably be hell to pay in Europe this coming winter. By winter of 23-24, they'll be out of the woods, and Russia will be suffering. My biggest fear is that Putin will do something even more stupid in his rage at losing, or out of his fear of being violently replaced.