Tea leavesThese recent insider buys are interesting in that they suggest a few things.
An aside. If I recall correctly, the insider trading window will close two weeks before the end of the quarter. And that window, I'm pretty sure, will stay shut until Q4 is reported. So this would be close to the last time for insiders to buy for some months. (Happy to be corrected if I'm off on the details.)
So, two things that might be inferred. First, it's probably the case that there won't be a material disclosure within the next week or two, perhaps for the rest of the year. I think it would be asking for trouble to be buying on Friday and then announcing an acquisition or major contract the following, say, Wednesday. So I'll get off the edge of my seat.
(The one exception to this would be if a court decision came out because, of course, the company would have no foreknowledge of the exact timing. So that could happen at any time.)
The second thing one might infer has to do with those three ETC almost-contracts that Paul referred to in the Q3 CC. If even one of those three were to fall through due to a successful protest, well, I don't think the market would like it. And I'd also think that should be obvious to people close to the company.
My point: I would take those insider buys as a pretty good indication that those three contracts, though not yet signed (even for a while yet), are looking totally solid. I don't think it would be a problem for insiders to trade on such knowledge because that's more or less what Paul told everyone in the Q3 CC.
These are all my wild speculations. I have zero insider knowledge.