TSX:SRV.UN - Post by User
Comment by
flamingogoldon Nov 18, 2020 2:37pm
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Post# 31923870
RE:RE:RE:Pfizer vaccine now 95% effective
RE:RE:RE:Pfizer vaccine now 95% effectiveI was hoping for a token one time special dividend, it would have peeked the interest of value seekers and given the stock a bit of a bump. Unfortunately, Ford's strict indoor dining rules last week was a one-two punch to the gut impacting the majority of SIR's locations.
We'll just have to wait this out a little longer but good to know we have extremely positive vaccine news on the horizon to see this through.
logicandinertia wrote: Perhaps, but the broader market is now ignoring the higher Covid cases and quasi lockdowns because of effectiveness and timeliness of vaccine. Most of the Canadian restaurants share prices are higher now compared to before Ford put more zones into Red restrictions.
I think spending returns. According to OsFI and CIBC, Canadian households sitting on $90 billion in excess cash. https://financialpost.com/news/economy/canadian-households-and-businesses-sitting-on-170-billion-excess-cash-hoard-cibc
All the lenders to the restaurants who have bridged many thru waiver covenants in the past 8 months aren't likely to now start calling loans on the cusp of a vaccine rollout imo.
this may be controversial , but I believe spending patterns will revert back to normal quickly when the vaccine is rolled out. Travel, restaurant spending, general shopping trends will return. Sporting events, concerts and office buildings will fill back up.
SIR's most productive store is likely front and York in downtown Toronto, that benefits from office traffic , And events at Rogers centre and ACC (or whatever is called now) are a big business driver. Just one example .
with supply of dine-in restaurants having shrunk, survivors will benefit from both reduced leasing costs (probably) and fewer competitors.
Sir royalty distributed an average of $10 million per year to shareholders from 2017 to 2019. It now trades at less than 2x this average distribution, given market cap less than $20million (8 million units outstanding). That is the investment case in its simplest form.
good luck..