RE:RE:RE:What will happen to oil in this scenario Thanks. Nice to have those kinds of contacts you can call.
Well, your general friend seems to be in the know, and has certainly proven himself accurate regarding Russia. His feelings about China's military being no match for the US have been also repeated by some expats here that have lived in China. The Chinese army seems more fit to turn and fight inward, to control their own populations in the case of unrest. On borders, the cameras and razor wire recently installed faces inwards, not outwards.
Like a strangling vine, the Chinese tentacles of belt and road investment have wrapped themselves tightly with their power and economic control. Especially true in Laos, and Cambodia, then Myanmar and Thailand. They even control the flow of the mighty Mekong, which downstream, is home to the largest inland fishery in the world feeding millions. They are killing it off with about 15 new dams upstream, and more being built, denying any responsibility as Tonle Sap no longer receives the annual monsoon flood levels and nutrients.
There are a few ethnic Chinese communist villages and enclaves here in Northern Thailand. They used to attack the Thai army years ago, then were eventually forced to be killed or surrender, then they were allowed to live in remote areas. Strange to see. Lots of people wear the hats with the star and descendents still believe in the cause. You can find and crawl through old secret bases underground with tunnel networks in places.
Although the US has a close relationship with Thailand, Thailand has bought submarines offered from China, so it seems they have already picked a side.
Economically, China is still heavily reliant on exports, as we rely on their products. Imagine a WalMart without Chinese products? A 7-11 would have more stuff on the shelves.
As OldNagger posted and pointed out, China is withdrawing from oil and gas exploration investments in the west, at a time which doesn't make sense with oil at such levels and just as their investments are starting to bear fruit. Clearly a political decision to develop a sanction proof energy industry as the relationship with the west deteriorates.
Presently, they are still not letting any Chinese travel out of their country like the swarms of Chinese tourists that were here before, so things have been quite pleasant and nice travelling around here.
I'm interested to know as the Chinese make their exit from the oil sands, who will be buying up the pieces? Who is big enough? Who is the best fit? It makes a lot more sense to buy a complete existing oilsands operation, than to try to build a new one today with the utopian green fantasy, political quagmire, and regulatory purgatory we have created.
Experienced wrote: Migraine - another thoughtful post. In terms of such matters, I have learned over the years, not to rely on press reports, since by and large the press, and especially in the US are largely propaganda machines and generally ill-informed.
When I need to get the facts relating to things that I know very little about, I rely on a network of people who "have been there and done that" and have passed the test of time in terms of getting it right. As you recall, earlier this year, I posted a summary of the predictions of a retired US General contact of mine regarding whether Russia would invade Ukraine and if so when. He actually predicted the exact date of the invasion about a month ahead of time.
So I asked him over the weekend, prompted by your post, what the deal is with China and Taiwan. His assessment in summary is as follows...
1.....the Chinese military capacity is highly overrated. Most of the 2-3 million people in the Chinese military have very little training and are not combat ready. Most of them don't even have the capability to move within China itself let alone outside the country and primarily serve as a higher level internal and regional force to maintain the Chinese leadership against insurection.
2....the Chinese have a very limited number of 4th generation fighter plane capacity and practically zero 5th generation capacity whereas the US could concentrate greater capacity on a couple of its 11 aircraft carrier battle groups.
3...in a war, China would be very vulnerable to US attacks since its critical infrastructure is highly concentrated in coastal areas and can be easily attacked.
4....in terms of WWIII, China has no real strategic allies short of Russia and even that capability is questionable and North Korea threatening South Korea and Japan.
His assessment is that from a military perspective, a war between China and the US wouldn't last very long, much like the First Gulf War where Iraq's airforce didn't even get off the ground.
The real question in his mind is whether the US leadership at such time would have the stomach to engage the Chinese economically and militarily if China attacked Taiwan or escalated what they are currently doing. Right now under Biden his assessment is that the answer is no. The US has no obligation to protect Taiwan should it be attacked by China in the same way that it has no obligation to protect Ukraine. The primary difference between the two is that the US relies more on Taiwan for strategic goods like semiconductors than it does on Ukraine for anything else.
The US and the West's reliance on Taiwanese semiconductors is the West's achilles heel. A strategic Chinese attack on Taiwanese semiconductor facilities would send the Taiwanese economy and that of the West into a recession and the Chinese have the capacity to successfully inflict such a limited attack.
In his opinion, the real challenge is not military. He laughed and said if it was just a military issue and the US President gave the military leadership the authority to do what it needed to do that "it would be all over except for the crying". The real question, in his view, is economics. We have already seen in the case of Russia in the Ukraine that sanctions backfire and cause problems for the West. In his opinion, that is Kindergarden compared to a conflict with China. Economic sanctions on China would likely to lead to a major recession in the West and especially the US.
Bottom Line?
Militarily, China doesn't have a chance. Their real power is economics which would put significant hardship on the West and when combined with Western political leadership that would rather spend money in a proxy war than actually fight, WWIII with China would not be a military conflict but an economic conflict.
As a personal sidebar, Migraine, I agree that young people in the West should start learning Mandarin, but that is due to economics not military. That said, I do recognize the particular vulnerability of countries in SE Asia such as Thailand which have little power to resist Chinese aggression and little Western support.
So there you have it..