WOW. What a whipsaw trading, someone blasts it down 20%+ of a market order on the open and I finally got a chance to get in. Here’s my take;
 
Revenue – 35.5M Up 24% YoY

Both trucking (up 20%) and logistics (up 35%) divisions showing strong revenue growth, key thing is they are putting up strong organic growth which doesn’t make them reliant on incremental acquisitions to grow. It can be complementary but not the sole driver for growth.
 
I am real bullish on the Logistics division for 2018. Q4 just put up 35% growth and they already preannounced January Logistics revenue of 5.5M+ or 60% of the total Logistics revenue for Q1 ’17 in a single month!!!
 
With the Canadian dollar moderating this will be a tailwind in 2018 as the YoY headwinds of the strengthening dollar will subside.
 
Profitability – 3.5M EBITDA Up 14% YoY
 
Big thing is that the margin on the Logistics business will continue to expand as the business continues to grow and the and the Trucking margins will reverse in 2018 as pricing and supply tightens. Management told you that in a single line and I quote;
“In recent months we have seen improving industry dynamics reflecting tightening capacity and an increasing rate environment. Our continued investment in people and technology, along with a focus on driving increased organic growth, positions us well to respond to and benefit from a strengthening environment.” 
 
Outlook – 155M Revenue and 16M in EBITDA

Upgraded from 140M and 15M respectively or a 10% increase in guidance from November alone, yet the stock is lower than when the previous guidance was announced. SMALL CAP SHENAGIGANS!!!
 
Addressing the elephant in the room of Trade and NAFTA I don’t think its material, with the major industries at risks being Automotive and Forestry only representing 7.2% and 4.7% or revenue respectively and not all of that being cross border so exposure is limited.
 
I think management is being real conservative with the guidance, I am closer to 160M and 17M in EBITDA.
 
Also love the accelerated debt repayment in Q4 as the company continues to de-lever and settlement of Pro North acquisition terms.
 
A 34M market cap company generating 17M in EBITDA or 2x EBITDA… good things happen to cheap stocks. Take-out candidate??? Do you hear me MTL.TO
 
LONG