Interesting China Will ship more than 10GW! TOPCon 2022 welcomes the first year of industrialization
N-type silicon cells have high minority carrier lifetime, low light-induced attenuation, and good weak light response. They have become the development direction of crystalline silicon cells, accounting for about 3% in 2021.
China's photovoltaic industry technology roadmap predicts that the market share of TOPCon cells will increase from 2% in 2021 to 20% in 2025.
So, what will be the technological development of TOPCon this year?
Dr. Song Dengyuan, Chief Technology Officer of Yidao New Energy, believes that 2022 will be the first year for the industrialization of n-type TOPCon technology, and the market share will exceed 50% in 2030.
He said that five factors have driven the arrival of the first year of TOPCon battery industrialization this year. First of all, the scale of shipments is expected. It is expected that more than 10GW of TOPCon products will be shipped in the industry in 2022, and the corresponding capacity data is even larger, with plans exceeding 60GW.
Secondly, the equipment compatibility is good, the industry has many traditional production capacity, TOPCon technology can be compatible with PERC production line, the equipment technology is mature, and it is not difficult to upgrade.
Third, the talent reserve and key equipment are highly mature. Due to the great compatibility with PERC, the production and manufacturing talent pool is sufficient, and the familiarity with the operation of the equipment is also higher.
Fourth, the investment economy is significant. The investment cost of the TOPCon production line is more economical than other n-type battery technologies. The current investment level is 210 million yuan/GW.
Fifth, the efficiency improvement potential is high. The laboratory cell efficiency is 26%, and the theoretical efficiency is even higher to 28.7%. There is still a lot of room for improvement in efficiency.
The efficiency improvement space is large, indicating that the subsequent industrialization efficiency improvement space is also large enough.
According to the relevant statistics of PV Lnfolink, as of the first quarter of 2022, the declared production capacity of TOPCon has exceeded 140GW.
Zhao Xiang, a senior analyst at the agency, said that the TOPCon production capacity will increase significantly from 2022. The cumulative production capacity (including those under construction) is expected to reach 50GW by the end of 2022, and will be close to 80GW by the end of 2023.
(Editor in charge: Xiao Bei)
(Google Translated)
https://www.pv-tech.cn/industry_commentary/Song_dengyuan_five_elements_of_the_first_year_of_n-type_TOPCON_technology?