Global sales of passenger EVs are projected to increase from 2.1 million in 2019 to 8.5 million in 2025 and to 26 million in 2030. But these high- growth projections are predicated on average price parity between EVs and internal combustion vehicles by mid-2020s. Batteries constitute 35% to 45% of total passenger EV cost. Therefore, reducing EV battery cost is synonymous with reducing EV price. According to BloombergNEF, “for mass market [adoption of] passenger EVs, low battery prices will remain the most critical goal.”50 Li-ion battery prices were above $1,100 (U.S.) per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2010. Prices have fallen 87% in real terms to $156/kWh in 2019. And prices are predicted to drop to $100/kWh by 2024 and to $61/kWh by 2030.51 But some of the factors that have driven the rapid price decrease may not persist, and, according to The Wall Street Journal, “If the cost of batteries doesn’t continue to fall, long-range affordable EVs will remain a pipe dream.

Silicon makes up 27.7% of the Earth’s crust by mass and is the second most abundant element (behind only oxygen).62 According to research conducted on battery innovation by scientists at the Mobility, Logistics and Automotive Technology Research Centre, using silicon-based batteries can achieve a cost reduction per kWh of 30%, and the $100/kWh cost will be reached between 2020 and 2025. The research concludes that, “This low price will have a significant impact on the overall price of an electric vehicles [sic] since the battery represents the largest cost,” and “This price reduction will aide in the mass adoption of electric vehicles.”63

Li-ion battery manufacturers are expecting gigafactories to reach economies of scale and decrease the unit cost of production in the near term.64 But this alone will not be sufficient to continue the required pace of decreasing battery cost needed to drive EV and BESS market penetration at projected rates. According to BloombergNEF, “As we get closer to the second half of the 2020s energy density at the cell and pack level will play a growing role, as it allows for more efficient use of materials and manufacturing capacity.”65

In the wrong business or full of BS !!! The Silicon timelines are still in their infancy !!!

An anode with silicon as the only active lithium cycling material has the potential to deliver a threefold benefit: 1) significantly increase energy density, 2) decrease material cost, and 3) leverage an abundant supply of raw material. But not all silicon anode production techniques are cost effective. The Enovix 3D cell architecture has been designed for the use of low-cost commodity silicon anode materials. Other approaches involve nanowires, nanoparticles or other structurally engineered materials, which involve additional silicon processing cost. And if the cost of silicon anode material processing exceeds the present, baseline cost of graphite anode production, it reduces the energy density benefit and diminishes the overall advantage of a silicon-anode Li-ion battery.

Tesla has blended small amounts of silicon with graphite in its EV batteries since 2015. At the time, Elon Musk said, “This is just sort of a baby step in the direction of using silicon in the anode.”66 At Tesla’s Battery Day, on September 22, 2020, Musk outlined a list of (primarily process) improvements the company plans to significantly improve battery performance

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over the next three to four years. One of the components of Tesla’s battery improvement program was the goal to leverage silicon-anode technology and to manufacture it internally. Musk said, “Silicon oxide-based solutions should be the advanced anode of choice for mainstream battery producers today, and they should be expected to dominate the market over the next five to seven years.”67 This means that other EV producers will need to adopt similar technology or face a serious competitive disadvantage by 2025.