RE: take out value speculation? / mrmomo(I just reposted b/c I noticed the formating made it hard to read)
Not sure where you get your numbers from mrmomo (I conclude RER is undervalued) but lets compare Real Ressources to the peer group. First of all where did you get the 40mboe, they have 33,666 mboe of P+P reserves, so your starting off wrong. Anyway here are RER's metrics compared to the peer group average (My average is based on 14 comparable companies; Birchcliff, Bow Valley, Compton, Cyries, Delphi, Duvernay, Fairquest, Galleon, Nuvista, Paramount, ProEx, Real, Rider and TriStar Oil&Gas.
2007E P/CF
Real: 3.3*
Avg: 5.2*
Debt-Adj CF
Real: 4.4*
Avg: 6.6*
2007E EV/BOE/D
Real: $44,690
Avg: $68,000
2007E EV/Proven BOE
Real: $23.39
Avg: $33.2
Gas Production
Real: 40%
Avg: 77%
Every single multiple shows RER trading at a discount to their peers. Show me a single measure where RER is valued higher then their peers.
RER has proven reserves of 23 mboe. Based on the average multiple of $33.2, they would have an EV of $763,600,000, take away the $157 million in debt and the shares are worth $606,600,000. Fully dilluted shares are ~41.5 million, gets you a share price of $14.62.
Also this calculation is using the peer group average multiple, keep in mind the group average production is 77% weighted to gas while RER is 40% gas, gas trades at around $45/boe (after todays jump) and oil trades at over $60/boe, so they should get a premium valuation.
There are the calculation, now lets see your justification for a $10 share price.