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Tamerlane Ventures Inc. V.TAM



TSXV:TAM - Post by User

Bullboard Posts
Comment by loparnon Mar 17, 2007 7:47am
216 Views
Post# 12436037

RE: ADA - TAM

RE: ADA - TAMI find around 155 million fully diluted shares in ADA (105 + 22 at least per Sept 30 according to Sedar, + 28 new PP, if now other PP:s have occured after sept 30 and befor the new one). With TAM 41 million fully diluted shares, ADA has a 1.06 x 155/(0.53 x 41) or around 7.6 times the market capital that of TAM. According to Resource Investor in January ADA also has a potential for CAD 1 or more in their "hidden assets". The RI calculation corresponds to a cash flow 0.35 per share if you consider the stock dillution after the new PP (with their $1.50 zinc and 70 cent lead and expected production increasement 25 % over feasibility study). That is p/cf 3 (before taxes)now, which seems rather reasonoble or a little bit low. It seems that the hidden assets then is the undiscounted potential. If you do a similar cash flow calculation at TAM you find, as Califdreaming has shown, around CAD 1 in cf/share even if you as I do now assume a high dilution to 100 million shares. I think realistically one could expect 1-2 CAD/share in cash flow. If you take the same cf 3 multiple as in ADA you get CAD 3-6 potential for TAM, that is around 6-11 times the current stock price. ADA with CAD 1.05 (3x0.35) for the zink & lead-business + the Resource Investor indicated CAD 1+ potential for the hidden assets, then might have a stock potential of let´s say 2+ CAD or around 2+ times the current stock price. So TAM should have around 3-6 times higher stock potential than ADA, using p/cf 3 in both cases, and compenated for the hidden assets in ADA. I find it very hard to explain this huge difference in other factors such as risk.
Bullboard Posts