Connacher Oil & Gas Ltd CLLZF

RE: Questions on valuation.

[strzelin]

This is from my post on Aug 26. It may give you ideas about current CLL NAV. JUREK Based on recent market correction and and new prices for SAGD amenable deposits ( $2/recoverable OBIP-see not #1),here is my updated and most current (AUG 26)evaluation of the CLL NAV . Conventional LUKE OIL&GAS : Average 2007 production -- 3000 bbl/day Current valuation at $40000 per daily flow Market value $120 mln $0.55 per CLL share PETROLIFERA PETROLEUM (PDP)- $15.02 Market value $661mln 26% CLL ownership -$172mln $0.78 per CLL share MONTANA REFINERY Estimated value (based on 10000 bbl/d production) $120 mln $0.55 per CLL share TOTAL CONVENTIONAL $1.88 per CLL share OILSAND ASSETS Based on the CLL new report 3P+Best EST is 800 mln bbl Assuming about 50% recovery for CLL SAGD Plant we have $400 mln of recoverable bitumen reserves. Implied buyout value at $2/bbl is $800 mln. (This will obviously increase in value with winter drilling programs in coming years) Current OILSAND ASSETS $3.64 per CLL share TOTAL CURRENT CLL NAVPS $5.52 CLL is trading now at 65% of the NAV. NOTES: 1.OBIP is the gross volume of bitumen estimated, at a particular time. Recent buyouts at $2/ recoverable OBIP (up from the Shell purchase of BVI at $1). 2. CLL shares: a.199 mln common shares b.20 mln common shares (from convertible deb) c.18 mln share purchase option (not included in my calculation) 3. Value of the POD1 plant not included due to outstanding debt of similar value. 4. Things to remember: this is NAV model. As I posted before with POD1 production starting in December CLL will graduate to Junior Oilsand Producers sector with much more favorable valuation model. JUREK