RE: Yawn!!! And other reactions...bfw
With respect to your responses, it may be that the combination of the success of NexVas PR to the point of it being dispensed like candy, and compelling anecdotal and correlative evidence of the lack of Alzheimers in NexVas CVD patients, could conspire together to diminish the potential of a NexVas AD market to the point of insignificance, too small for a billion-dollar trial. However, a quantitative rather than qualitative test for Alzheimers would speed up trials considerably and might allow the 2 indications, CVD and AD, to be concurrently treated well within the patent window for NexVas PR (RVX208). I wouldn't hold my breath on that, though.
I think the real value of AD is patent extension as you say. But this argument works better for a company that owns it all than it does for the owners of single NexVas programs. Look at what happened to Pfizer's market cap when Torcetrapib failed. The impending patent expiration of Lipitor, the subsequent loss of billions in annual revenue and the lack of a replacement therapy and/or Lipitor combination therapy caused a $22 billion loss in market valuation. For a mere 2 or 3 billion now, a pharma may have a wellspring of therapies with which to control APO-A1 therapies for half a century along with control of a host of plaque and inflammation related indications, many not discovered yet.
As you suggest, the method of discovery not only provides exclusivity, it also provides alternatives should RVX208 fail and, most importantly, the opportunity for patent extension through reformulations and new indications. But I disagree with your view of the pharmas' outlook. I think they'll look out that far if only to prevent another pharma from doing so. I think it would be irresponsible for a pharma to allow another pharma to do that and worse, to be seen to be doing that. It's one thing to lose a bidding war, it's another to win a battle now only to watch your own decline and fall later, certainly not a pyrrhic victory, but less of a victory than it could be. Certainly it could place the legacy of current pharma management in jeopardy.
You accurately reflected my thoughts, pushups.