FED cutting the dollar, trend resumesnext week, tuesday. Personally I expect a 50 basis point cut.
Sometimes people here talk about pumpers & bashers.
The true pumpers are of course the centralbanks. In order to be able to cut rates agressively the dollar had to stopp falling. It is no secret that the market watch gold as a barometer for the dollar, so gold had to fall in order to stabilize the usd and avoiding a continued nasty spiral down.
We have been reading in the press how the centralbanks are in telephoneconferences almost every day. What before this FOMC meeting included:
- ECB selling ALOT of gold in a short time.
- Goldman & Sachs saying that people should go long the dollar and short gold.
- The US stockmarket up & oil down. Most likely with a little help from our friends..
- Arab support to US banks & no more talk about leaving the dollar (for the moment)
One can no doubt make that list much longer. My point is that alot of coordinated work has been done in order to make the conditions as good as possible for another ratecut&more money expansion in the US.
The results are not very impressive. Oil 90 usd, gold 800 and the usd/euro 1,46 but the effort worked. It is now possible to lower rates without risking a 10% immediate cut in the usd.
For us invested in gold & silver this has created a completely normal and necessary pause in a very strong bullmarket. Junior producers like AUN, USA, SAM etc are very volatile but they offer extremely nice risk/reward at these levels in my opinion. They are no longer burning matches but rather cf positive. That lowers the risk tremendously. And when gold and silver resumes its momentum upwards you cannot be better invested then in small producers that are rapidly growing output of gold and/or silver.
That is my opinion. Very interesting weeks ahead.