Twin Butte Energy Ltd TBTEF

RE: Glad I'm out

[bshort92]

Don't attack the messenger. Not trying to be a jerk or talk the shares down. They already have run from $4.30 a share to $3.30 a share before my rant.I'm still following this issue and might jump back in. Maybe next week after earnings. Might wait for more downside...which I still see. 

"If Jayr was as bad as you think why would they be punching down another multi million dollar well?" Beats me. They haven't done anything on the first well yet. Progress has been real slow on this puppy. They disclosed they would consider alternative frac techniques on the next well. Tells us that something isn't right on this effort.  Besides TBE was producing 2000 BOE a day at Q4 2007. They added 1100 BOE a day with the EFE buy. Q1 of 2008 they gave us just 2500 BOE a day. If Q2 numbers show 3100 BOE a day production then what are they doing? Spinning their wheels? Or what?

 "Have you ever considered that they are just keeping a tight lip so everyone and their dog doesn't go into that field and drill up the offset acerage and drain them." Actions speak louder than words. If the play was so good you would be seeing some insider buying besides Steele's token 5100 shares. Saunders,Colborne,Starnino,Cawston,Hruska are not buying shares. Why?

" As for your comment "can't assume that the Brassey drill will materially impact the company"! Are you really trying to BS us all with this comment?" No Its just that on the heels of Shell's buy of Duvernay that Crew cratered from $19 a share to $13 a share and they had the 2nd biggest Montney BC land position after Duvernay. OEX has spent lots of time and money working the Montney. The area lacks pipeline capacity and infrastructure. The area is in my view geared for the big guys with deep pockets. Besides that 1st well is an exploratory well. Its expensive and might not deliver results let alone prodcution.

"Why do you think Royal Dutch Shell bought Duverney for $85 a share?" They see that the acreage has upside and that other big players are wanting in big time. Ask yourself if Shell over paid. On the heels of the announcement every outfit with a Montney presence has seen their share price plunge. Why?

" Why do you think all of the land around here is setting western canadian landsale records?" I suspect many are over paying because they will not see returns until the infrastructure catches up and they are banking that natural gas prices continue to stay robust ( say over $10). Nothing is guaranteed and what if BC pulls the same crap that Alberta pulled on the royalty side?

" Why do you think everyone is saying 50 BCF per section? Why are all of the analyists sayign $5-$6 target prices? Thats right because we are all idiots for buying into such a crazy story, I don't think so." Last I checked Pelletier left Blackmont. Liu at Cannaccord has not been that accurate with market trends and the only house on the buy and supporting TBE at $3.30 a share has been Peters. The market is adrift and energy firms particularly jr's are out of favor. Hey they will come back. When is anybody's guess but when you see the insiders getting in that wil be a good sign.