General updateChaps,
I understand from talking to a few people that things are progressing on a satisfactory basis, even if original hopes & plans are unlikely ever to be achieved. PC is producing and gold is being sold on the market. However, throughput is running at 400t per days against a target of 500t and it is unlikely that throughput will rise much above 400t per day. Recovery is also running at about 85% of anticipated so overall the level of output is down quite significantly from the business case assumptions. Talks with the nearby neighbouring mill are progressing. That firm had already budgeted to mothball their mill so are delighted that they can 'regain' some or all of those funds. ANX is currently trying to agree a price for using the mill and for transport of their ore.
With regards to Chile and iron ore - apparently they are working on a couple of deals with big local smelters/steel producers and whilst nothing's going to happen this year it is quite possible that something might happen in early-ish 2009.
I also understand that several of the senior management team are so heavily invested in ANX stock that they cannot afford for it to fail as it would wipe them out - apparently at least one of them had taken out a 2nd mortgage on his family home in order to stay invest at prices nearer C$1.20 than 10c!
So what does all this mean?
ANX is safe in that it is self sufficient, although the margin for error and the margin of safety is thin or non-existent. There is hope in that PC gold sales will increase by at least 25% if the neighbouring mill facility can be organised, and maybe a lot more if that mill needs to be run at capacity in order to make it economic. Obviousl, profitability of that production will be lower due to transport and paying for the facility.
Chile is a completely different story now that base metal prices have collapsed from the levels of 6 - 12 months ago, but I guess it will still be profitable - the issue there is all about the grade of ore and finding a customer. I believe the latter issue is heading towards resolution and the former is what investing in stock is all about - risk!
Our management team are therefore committed and working their nuts off to make this work and to get the business on as safe and profitable footing as possible as quickly as possible. However, the economic downturn has changed the game considerably insofar as Chile is concerned, even if the cost of debt has collapsed as Central Banks reduce interest rates to stimulate economies. Until commodity prices start rising again we will be in an unfashionable part of the stock market and are unlikely to see much appreciation in our stock price until and unless the company can publish some really good news. The only good news at the moment is that there is no bad news!
Unless you can afford to wait for the upturn my view would be that you should sell, book a tax loss and reinvest in stocks that are going to be 1st out of the trough - then come back to ANX when you've made some gains elsewhere. But don't take investment advice from me - after all, I'm not retired despite investing for a decade or so in stocks, so I'm not that successful!
Hope this is helpful and have a great weekend.