My view...on general updateiq,
I am resigned to the fact that the share price will languish at these levels until either 1)there is a NR that PC has reached "commercial production" which in essence means that the investment phase is over and the banking-the-money phase has begun and/or 2)they strike some sort of take-off deal for the iron ore in Chile.
I think that at least one of these events is likely to occur during Q1, and possibly both. I certainly expect to see both events occur within H1.
Once one of these events happens then our investment should be safe because it would mean there is enough cash to pay the bills, covenents will not be breached and confidence in the stability of the company should be obvious. In the meantime, there is significant risk to the share price because there is inadequate information about the company's cash flow. If more cash is required, either for PC or working capital/SG&A, raising it will probably be highly dilutative and therefore be very bad for you and I. The good news though, is that if we get diluted then so do management - and given that the last fund raising was done via debenture as opposed to share sales it would indicate to me that management are using every trick in the book to avoid further dilution.
There is likely to be more tax-loss selling during December, so the next 3 weeks should be a good time to pick up cheap stock. Markets are emotional, and I suspect that over Xmas people will realise that stock prices are now at very low multiples and that there's one hell of a lot of bad news already accounted for. So, hopefully, the New Year wil bring renewed optimism - I don't know if you saw the US mortgage figures this week - since the Govt started guaranteeing mortgage debts rates have plummeted and applications have rocketed. I suspect that every American who has equity in their property will now remortgage onto the best 30yr fixed rates that have ever been offered. The knock-on effect of this could be to give the US economy a massive massive massive shot in the arm: equity withdrawal from those still with jobs will get retail going and new house purchases on historically low mortgage deals will kick start the construction sector - 2009 could see a massive US led rebound of monumental proportions. And don't forget, China is still growing at 9% - doesn't look like much of a recession looming in the iron ore market, does it? When people realise that iron ore demand is simply slowing as opposed to falling we might see a more realistic tint to our share price.
I think the worst thing to do would be to bank on a rise in the ANX price in H1. I think the best thing you could do would be to invest another C$10k - which buys you 100k shares. A nice Xmas present to yourself!
Have a good one.
L&K
VM xxx