DRCJOBS, MINES, FALL LIKE DOMINOES
DRC's copper-cobalt curse returns
More than 300,000 jobs at stake in Katanga Province as mining in the province continues to disintegrate.
Author: Barry Sergeant
Posted: Tuesday , 09 Dec 2008
JOHANNESBURG -
Up to 300,000 people may lose their jobs in Katanga Province, Democratic Republic of Congo, according to reports on the latest analysis of the situation by regional mining minister Barthelemy Mumba Gama; 200,000 such jobs, mainly in artisanal mining, have already gone.
The attack on Katanga Province's brownfields mining scene has been headed by collapses in commodity prices, particularly copper and cobalt, and remains underpinned by the incomplete government mining review, or revisitation. The overall destruction continues to reach beyond small scale mining into the formal mining sector, which restarted a decade ago, pioneered by long time regional leader First Quantum.
This past week it was Anvil that announced negative news; it has started the process of suspending concentrate production, postponing underground development work and initiating a care and maintenance program at its Dikulushi mine (90%) in Katanga Province.
A veteran mining man said from Katanga Province that mining there is "a disaster area. Most contracting has ceased and most expansion or start-up projects are canned or suspended indefinitely. Exceptions are Freeport-McMoRanat Tenke Fungurume, which should be producing in less than six months from now, and First Quantumat its Kolwezi tailings site. Both are companies that have great leadership. That is a key to survival". Freeport-McMoRan ranks as the world's biggest listed copper producer.
Last week, DRC government officials indicated that up to 45 of some 75 mining operations, mostly small ones, had halted work in Katanga Province. In less than six months, copper has fallen from USD 4.10/lb to as low as USD 1.40 recently, while cobalt, in which the DRC ranks as world leader, has crashed from USD 53/lb in March this year to around USD 13/lb currently.
In another setback, Katanga Miningannounced on 21 November that "given the depressed price of cobalt", it had temporarily suspended operations at its Tilwezembe open pit and ore processing at the Kolwezi Concentrator. While production of cobalt concentrate has been halted for now, Katanga Mining has "significant cobalt concentrate inventory which it expects to sell during the fourth quarter of 2008".
Katanga Mining is seen by some expert observers as offering attractive upside scope; the operation has curtailed its next massive expansion, and is producing relatively cheap copper due to its "existing elegant metallurgical system". This refers to copper oxide (and cobalt) from its T17 pit being leached with acid created by "sulphate leaching" of the sulphide ores from Kamoto, a synergy and cost saving designed decades ago by Belgian management. But is Katanga Mining making cash at current copper and cobalt prices?
Katanga Mining's latest woes follow the 19 November announcement from London-listed Camecthat it had "temporarily halted copper and cobalt mining operations" at its Luita plant and mines, including Mukondo, in Katanga Province. Camec referred to "a swift reaction to a sudden steep decline in cobalt demand from China, as well as a further decline in the copper price".
On 13 November, Anvilannounced drastic cash conservation methods. Earlier, on 24 August, Anvil had announced the private placement of 23.7m new shares at a price of CAD 10.00 a share to Catala for gross proceeds of around CAD 237m. On 14 September Anvil announced that the planned placing with Catala had been cancelled, given market conditions.
Metorexappears to be the one company that is plodding on through the morass. It recently announced a rights issue at a massive discount, aimed at raising ZAR 744m in fresh equity, plus a bridging finance loan of ZAR 178m, at punitive rates. The Metorex cash flow crunch followed application of the Ruashi (Katanga Province) hedgebook profits to an extended hedgebook; increases in the scope and extent of the Ruashi Project from the original feasibility study (completed in 2006); unexpected commissioning delays during September, October and November 2008 following pumps, valves and piping design flaws, "resulting in the loss of anticipated revenue and cash flow from the project"; delays in the completion of the cobalt circuit; inflation-related capital cost escalations during the construction and commissioning phases, particularly including in relation to stainless steel, cement and diesel prices; and further capital cost overruns.
Costs are an amplified issue in Katanga Province, which has poor infrastructure, frequent power supply problems, and general undercapitalization of both mining and service companies. The issue has been well illustrated by the experience at Anvil, a relative veteran of the new wave of Katanga Province miners.
Anvil's Dikulushi has been in production since 2002; Anvil also runs the Kulu mine (80%), in production since December 2005, and also the Kinsevere mine, where commissioning started around May 2007. During 2007, Dikulushi processed 353,000 tons of ore; Kulu, 340,000 tons, and Kinsevere, 173,000 tons. For the 2007 year, the reported cost of mining at Dikulushi was USD 0.14/lb, including silver credits.
Costs at the mine have gone exponential; this week Bill Turner, president and CEO of Anvil, stated: "The Dikulushi total cash cost per pound of copper is presently well above the current copper price. Although copper grades from underground sources would be higher from January next year, and cost reduction measures including curtailment of certain capital expenditures have been put in place recently, a copper price of approximately USD 1.40/lb renders the Dikulushi mine uneconomic at present".