Remember
The old saying "a day in politics is a long time".
Ever since I saw the TV interview of the Finance Minister I have been more optimistic that any required majority of the government, the Cabinent and their consultants are onside for concluding a "go-ahead" agreement. He was quiet, thoughtful, guarded and a little contrite. Just think how much face some of these guys have lost going into the negotiating room with world class experts, constantly reneging on promises, not delivering, missing timetables ... it has to be very embarassing.
People around the world are distinguished (IMO) mostly by their cultural experience. Among whole populations there is no great difference in basic human nature like compassion, desire, intelligence ... no matter what some bigot might want me to believe. Isn't it ironic that a generation of politicians nurtured in the culture of the Marxist Leninist State are preoccupied with personal advantage, and apart from empty rhetoric about communal welfare are pouring their energies into maximum personal advantage to the detriment of the whole society. They are conditioned into thinking that the State can take care of itself because in the totalitarian past it was just a few people who made these decisions.
Those of us who have lived in market economies, where life offers you choice from the gutter to gilded palaces, are much more conditioned to believe if we don't make a difference or cooperate personally, and make both concessions and demands we expect to be negotiated with "public interest" having a place at the table, then nobody will, and we will all suffer for it.
This ugly opera is going to come to an end. I find it difficult to believe that the senior members of the major parties don't have the ability to whip their camps into line. The petulant teenager State has now been reduced to the lamest of excuses ... ah, well, even if I can't come up with any good rason against the deal, I'm at my constituency and don't want to come back to a recalled GSK. That won't last long.
As for fretting about the terms, don't speculate in companies if you don't have confidence in the senior shareholders and management. Waitress, I'll have what RF is having, please. I'm happy to accept what is acceptable to him and RioT.
As for valuation and the future ... China is just catching her economic breath, the real 1000 lb Gorilla out there is India, and I'll be a monkey's uncle if Oyu Tolgoi isn't just one of several major porphry deposits in the neighbourhood. The future world has a greater demand for electrical infrastructure and the copper it requires than at any prior time in our evolution as a species.
If RioT delivers on the block caving concept and one or two other similar mines are developed on new discovery deposits, the Gobi is going to become the low cost producer that will break the back of Chile and Indonesia on pricing in both production and shipping. That means cashflow when markets tighten and that means consolidation. The assets are going to be valuable if all goes according to optimistic prognostication.
All is good. But then a day in politics is a long time and every now and again some key Mongolian seems to get loaded on Yak Lightning and drive his Range Rover into the ditch with dire consequences.
And no matter what happens it is an interesting ride. I'll leave with a favourite quote from one of the titans of lives lived with passion, Teddy Roosevelt:
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly; who errs and comes short again and again; because there is not effort without error and shortcomings; but who does actually strive to do the deed; who knows the great enthusiasm, the great devotion, who spends himself in a worthy cause, who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement and who at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly. So that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither victory nor defeat.”
And just for the record I have as they say in Vegas "put my money where my mouth is". Too bad last December I couldn't have doubled down in an even bigger way than I did. But I was sneaking a few sips of the Kool Aid, even when I knew I shouldn't. Call it the madness of crowds but I dabbled when I should have gone "all in". And I knew it even while I did it, too.
Momma would sure appreciate a new pair o' shoes in these doubtful times.
CG