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Tamerlane Ventures Inc. V.TAM



TSXV:TAM - Post by User

Bullboard Posts
Post by loparnon Dec 02, 2009 8:45am
653 Views
Post# 16544316

Debt or no debt financing of Pine Point project

Debt or no debt financing of Pine Point projectAccording to this presentation https://www.tamerlaneventures.com/files/TAM_corp_pres_Sep_08_2.pdf page 19 the Net cash flow would be USD 255 M from the first 8 years of operation, i.e. around 2012-2019, with zink USD 1.15 and lead 0.96 which as a weighted average is very close to the current prices.
The total net cash flow would be USD 255 M. After tax assumed to 25 % on the NET cash flow, total cash flow would be around USD 191 M. (I assume that the USD 255 M "net cash flow" in the feasibility is definied as a result after the USD 114 M has been raised. Otherwise that latter sum must be added, correcting for present value, and the motivated stock price higher)

At this moment there are only around 63 million shares FD which could increase to around 79 M FD if current financing is very successful. Assuming an extremely delutive case in which Tamerlane finances 100 % of the capital of USD 114 M needed with new shares at 0.16 CAD that would correspond to 748 M new shares with 1 USD=1.05 CAD. There would totally be around 827 M shares.

The 2010 discounted value of USD 179 M at 10 % interest rate, is around USD 113, if you approximate with all the 8 initial years of cash flow achieved 5.5 years from now on a weighted average base. Then the motivated share price now discounting 8 years of Pine Point production would be around CAD 0.14.

With Los Pinos included todays market price around CAD 0.16-0.17 would seem fair, in this case with exteme dilution.

On the other hand with totally 85 % debt financing , as a preferred possibility discussed in the feasibility study, total cash flow would be, assuming 10 % interest rate, USD ( 255- 8 x 10 % x 85 % x 114 ) = around USD 177 M , after tax USD 133 M. With 15 % of USD 114 financed via new shares at current low share price CAD 0.16 there would be 112 M new shares and a total of 191 M.

Thus in the 85 % debt financing case the motivated stock price would be CAD 0.73.

With Los Pinos included thus there could be a short term re-evaluation potential up to around 0.9 CAD, in the 85 % debt financing case. Especially if the debt financing would be announced before the stock price for new equity is decided. Then the dilution from the new shares could be even lesser...

Thus you see the extremely varied potential in these to different cases.
This was just rather rough calculations based on Tamerlanes´s own figures, but you see clarily how the dilutive effect would vary, even if metal prices would not change.

Therefore a step by step financing process where the likelyhood for of a better stock price when dilution takes place - especially if metal prices continue to rise - that would probably automatically lead to a smaller dilution for current share holders. And if Tamerlane could achieve 85 % debt financing the sock would problably explode...

Bullboard Posts