RE: A Reality CheckAbsolutely right ilafalot, I owe the longs on this board a share. If it's alright with everyone, I'll wait until it gets to 5 bucks a share so I can make it a beer.
I agree with your analysis too. This is not a takeout story at this point. What we have is an exploration play still truly in its infancy, and it will take drill results to prove up the resource before any majors take a look at it.
I believe we're going to see the stock steamroll through a buck very shortly (assuming gold doesn't pull back). I know exploration plays shouldn't trade directly in line with the gold price, but if there's negative sentiment in the gold market, CAN buyers will take a pause just like everyone else. Whoever made the comment about some institutional accounts being restricted from buying under a buck is right. We could see some new volume into the name and a new wave of buying.
But, that being said, if the price shoots from 1.00 to 1.15 or 1.20, we're going to get a lot of supply. Particularly from those that follow Earle over at TD and bought in anywhere from 50 - 75 cents. Another decent NR should be enough to get it there. It might make sense for CAN to do an equity issue at that point, at a 5 cent discount to the market (maybe 1.10 or even 1.00 depending).
That is all unless some great drill results come into the market. This is why I'm so excited about this play. My base case scenario calls for a near term 20% pop in the share price. Better drill results could mean 1.50 or 2.00, or who knows how high. And I believe they are making progress in better understanding the resource and as a result we'll start to see incrementally better grades.
Hang on to your hats