RE: Innuendo.Pericles, I thought my last posting accusing Haititrader of using the Board to drum up sales may have drawn a response from you. By innuendo, my posting could place you as a fellow manipulator since you helped introduce Hiatitrader to the Board. You gave him credibility compared to your first reply to my first posting, Naysayers posted on May 21, 2010.
As a manipulator trying to drum up sales, I find Haititrader too obvious. His postings do not place him as a credible investor. His due diligence to invest in Oncolytics consisted of your reply to his posting asking “why invest?” He does not understand Reolysin since his harping for redesign suggests a modified virus which would add to costs and increase the time to market due to satisfying the FDA’s concerns regarding mutations. His promotion of science falls on deaf ears since he does understand the difference between an investor discussion group and a scientific discussion group, particularly the latter group who hold PHDs and earn their living advancing science. I doubt that his recent arrival to the Board has stimulated many sales from the pool of stocks held by retail investors. It is from the retail pool that professional institutional investors are patiently acquiring shares to build their positions in Oncolytics.
You, on the other hand, are the perfect manipulator to drum up sales. You have had a long history of over seven years to build your credibility and reputation. You have gained the Board’s trust. Your recent postings show a positive insight. This is another positive posting. My suspicions of you being a manipulator are aroused because there is usually a negative catch to your postings. You do not tell people to sell but leave the impression that there is no harm in selling.
I credit this Board for the reduction in trading volumes and the reduced volumes help explain today’s trading activity.
In the past, the retail investors acquired their position s and, with some exceptions for Big Pharma, there was no interest by institutional investors. Institutional interest picked up as they saw the potential in Reolysin and the time to market allowed them to slowly build their position. As retail investors became impatient, they sold their shares and the savvy institutional investor managed the market price down. There were also opportunities for the institutional investor to spike the stock down the ladder by selling a large block. The last trade on a Friday was a frequent favourite. Institutional investors get away with it because they were the dominant buyers. They also had the common objective to acquire their positions at the least cost. Keeping the market price around or below the $3 margin level was important.
Today, the institutional investor’s world has changed. They are still the dominant buyer. The difference is that the $3 stock price produces an unrealistic market capital valuation of $200 million. The group of retail investors, who are the dominant sellers, now have benchmark to judge if the going stock price is fair to them. If not fair value, hold. Without trading volume, the institutional investor has to increase price to increase supply. With the time to market closing quickly (2 years give or take), they can not afford to wait.
Recent trading activity is indicating that institutional investors are starting to lose their grip on the ability to control market price at $3.00. Cardu posted the impact of closings sales last Friday. On Tuesday, most of the drop in stock price was recovered. Today, we are experiencing a rally that is not based on new news. It is based on retail investors holding back from selling. As of 10:54, ONCY was trading at $3.29, up 2 cents, with a bid of 600 shares at $3.28 and an ask of $3.30 for 900 shares. The volume was 15,751 shares. There was practically no trading on the TSX. The volume of ONC traded was 760 shares. It was down 5 cents at $3.40. The bid was 5,900 shares at $3.40 while the ask was 1,500 shares at $3.43. As of 2:00 PM, the volume of ONCY traded was 83,441 shares with a current price of $3.40, and the corresponding numbers for ONC were 49,951and $3.53.
Pericles, what is your advice to investors? My advice to retail investors is to hold until the market price corrects to an appropriate market cap valuation above $500 million. My advice to institutional investors is to blink and buy as many shares as you can until the market corrects. I am not selling until the end is in sight.