Bloated
Maybe the word "bloated" wasn't the best choice, but I would make two comparisons with the current market cap:
- first, the level of market pricing we faced when investor confidence was shaken in the Fall '08 and Spring '09, granted before the IA and RioT making further warrant exercises, but still, showing how quickly capital value can be discounted. We are now in the 8X range from the worst
-second, and to my mind more important, IVN's own sensitivity NPV studies found in their presentations and the IDP 10 -
you can look at the chart with the dual variables of copper and gold pricing in IVN's life of mine (best case) scenario:
https://www.ivanhoemines.com/s/Presentations.asp
Mongolianjoe - there are buyers and sellers at every price level and that's what makes a market - we all have our own risk profiles and larger economic models and predictions concerning the bigger picture that help guide our positioning.
You keep saying "up up up" but I don't hear an explanation of the financial model that pushes your prediction. The NPV is only as high as the ability to mine and the price paid for concentrates, plus whatever value can be attributed to long-term ore reserves.
I see a tug-of-war between IVN and RioT over valuation and that presumably is based on whether or not the rate of production can be ramped higher (second and third mines, concentrator expansions or second operator sites) and their differences of opinion about future financing costs, mineral prices and net profit per ton mined.
Risk reward, fear and greed, yada yada. IVN has been good to me, the project is going to be a huge success, but what the ultimate production profitability will be is yet to be seen.
CG