Food For Thought
Appreciate the responses, I am no tub-thumper for claiming I can see the future. But I do like to read and try and make sense of the information available.
Here's a bit from some people who ought to know a little about copper prices, at least in the short term (and at the end of the day, isn't that the biggest variable of all for OT?) Note the last sentence in particular. I believe it was those $125/bbl oil prices that precipitated the end of the US mortgage debt/refinancing markets - it put too much pressure on American cashflows. Equally, I don't think the growth expected in China and elsewhere is robust enough to withstand sharply elevated copper prices. Remember we are already seeing prices in excess of 100% higher than the historic price for the past 10 years, in the $1.50 range, and in the 10 years previous to that prices were closer to the 75 cent range.
On the decline of the value of paper money, we agree - but gold and silver will probably benefit more - in industrial commodities there are limits on prices running too far ahead of wage rates - because people just can't afford to keep consuming at inflated levels. As long as wages are not inflating ... that will drag copper prices IMO.
Just food for thought.
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The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) held the 36th Regular Meeting of its Statistical Committee on 28th
September 2010 in Antofagasta, Chile. Government delegates and industry advisors from most of the world’s
leading copper producing and using countries met to discuss key issues affecting the global copper market. In its meeting of the Statistical Committee, the ICSG view of the world balance of refined copper production and use was developed.
According to ICSG data, the refined copper market balance for 2010 could show a slight surplus of 200,000 metric tonnes (t), not significantly different from the calculated surplus for 2009, as growth in copper supply for 2010 is expected to essentially match the growth in copper demand. In a reversal from the ICSG projection in April, the copper market for 2011 is now expected to show a deficit of about 400,000 t, as increased economic activity is expected to boost demand in copper end-use markets faster than the growth of refined production. While industrial demand in 2010 is expected to increase significantly in all of the major consuming regions, copper market off-take in the China-dominated Asian market, the leading global refined copper market, is expected to only increase slightly. In 2009, China´s apparent consumption (1) increased by 38%, significantly exceeding the estimated growth in China´s semi-manufacture production, owing to the substitution of refined copper for direct melt scrap and the assumed accumulation of unreported refined copper inventories. The increased availability of scrap in 2010 owing to higher
prices and inventory stability or release are expected to reduced China’s apparent demand to slightly below the 2009 level.
In developing its outlook, ICSG recognized that there is much uncertainty imposed by the variable rate of economic recovery in many of the major copper consuming regions that experienced a severe recession in the 2008-09 period; the dominant impact of the actual growth rate of copper semi-manufactures for China, which accounts for more than 30% of global refined copper consumption; and the potential release or further accumulation of inventories in China.
Operational constraints and cutbacks instituted in 2009 combined to constrain mine production in 2010 to 16.2 Million metric tons (Mt), about a 2% increase from that in 2009. Capacity utilization rates are expected to remain unchanged at only about 81%.
Though tabulations of project projections indicate that mine production in 2011 will increase by about 800,000 t (5%), it is expected that the actual increase will be lower as the significant level of production disruptions from project delays, technical problems, and labor and political unrest that has become the norm in recent years is expected to continue to reduce output.
World refined copper production for 2010 (adjusted for production disruptions) is therefore projected to increase by only about 4% to 19.1 Mt. In 2011, it is anticipated that refined production will again increase only slightly as a shortage of concentrates, based on projected adjusted mine production, is expected to continue to restrain growth.
Though the current global economic crisis has significantly reduced world refined copper usage levels, ICSG expects world apparent refined usage in 2010 to increase by about 3.8% from that in 2009 to 18.9 Mt., about a 1 Mt increase from ICSG’s April estimate. The majority of the revision was attributed to stronger than anticipated apparent consumption in China, and a 6.6% growth in end-use demand in the EU-27, up from 3.9% projected in April. In 2011, refined usage is again expected to increase in all major world markets, with global demand expected to rise by about 4.5%. Industrial demand growth for copper in China, which is based on anticipated semi-manufacture production, is expected to grow by about 6% in 2011.
In 2012 the market is expected to be more closely balanced, as an increase in refined copper production is expected to more than keep pace with sustained growth in overall demand.
CG