ARHT Media Inc V.ART.H

RE: RE: New Issue ?

[GreatSwami]

Thats a very presumptuous post.

It does not necessarily follow that the SP drop is caused by people who know what they are talking about - although that is a possibility. The SP drop could simply be caused by slow drilling progress "fatigue" among ordinary investors (who think they see better returns elsewhere) or by deliberate manipulation by those who are to do such things.

Vast is drilling a huge structure in an area surrounded by bad news. Sterling to the west on a parallel structure hit water and minor gas. WZR to the south at Kurdamir hit the well from hell and also had gas condensate but little oil. Miran to the north operated by Heritage thought they had oil but instead have had to change most of their reserves into gas condensate and not light oil. SoVast is fighting a huge perceptual headwind and from a simple closeology point of view things do not look good.

The fact that they have had to run their 7" liner (casing) and drop down to a 6" (6 1/8"?) hole size for the remainder of drilling means that if (when?) they run into more difficulties - they have no more drilling tricks up their sleeve to be able to case off problems and drill ahead.

The expected target formations in the Cretaceous have come in much lower than anyone expected - and so there is increased speculation they will have gas and not oil.

They are at 3550m and only expect to be able to drill to 4200m before TD - they may not reach that depth. At 3550m they are only some 140m+ into the top of the Shiranish - and while they may get drilled through the rest of the Shiranish and the underlying Kometan - they may not get far into the Qamchuqa formation - and it is this formation that has the best prospects of having some matrix porosity (read bigger reserves per sq km) and is expected to be the best zone. (They will not touch the Jurassic with this well - that will have to wait til some future drilling operation - maybe?)

There have been many reasons that have created the perfect scenario for SP weakness as drilling has progressed increasingly behind expected schedule - but to say that the SP is soft because the people who know what they are talking about are selling is self evidently wrong. Those who are selling are just placing a bet - just the same as those who are buying. If anything was known for certain here the SP would either have fallen on its face or skyrocketed depending on just what it is that was "Known" - and that hasn't happened yet. True the SP has softened considerably over the last few months as things have obviously got badly delayed and everyone is still waiting. But in case you hadn't noticed - just about everything else in the oil and commodities world has been fighting strong headwinds these past months and especially these past few days since GS (GoldmanSachs) put the boot in on oil and commodities. The only things making any upward progress are those with exceedingly good news to release - and Vast is not yet in that position.

GS