BlueAppreciate your comments. You don't know me from a hole in the ground but trust that I apply integrity to my posts and my position is always well rationalized.
I am PO'd about MTB and there are four factors that contribute to current share price from my perspective.
1. Capital Structure - Management IMO fubard the timing, price and volume of past fund raising activity
2. Market - No appetite for risk and I expect we are about to see a major correction (I'll resurface this comment mid to late may to see If I'm right). Things about to change with US Bank liquidity/Government intervention-stimulation and there is a strong correlation to when the stimulus and bull run began. Could get interesting
3. Management - Very weak IMO and not tied to the markets (hence the Joe Dwek arrangement). Somewhat questionable decisions/actions in the past that are red flags for accredited investors. Boo boos with compliance/regulators also support my position.
4. Silver coin resource report - They are using .3 GPT cut off in the resource calculation. The cut off that I have seen used for open pitable mines is .5 GPT in more favorable terrain. It could be argued gold price supports the lower cut off level but the market will discount this if peers have higher cut off grades in resource calculation.
Most resources are also in the measured and indicated and inferred category. There is a much higher valuation given to resources in Proven and Probable ($150 per oz vs $35) JDN needs to conduct infill drilling get more resources in the Proven and probable category
Personally I would like to see JDN take this out in a share deal as they have a stronger management team. Or I would like to see more strength on the BOD.
This is a risk capital play that could test .07 - .08 and if liquidity dries up again it could be a problem for MTB to raise capital.
Personally I'm really liking the looks of Kinross as a safe long at current valuations. The markets beaten the crap out of it for the RBI acquisition and I would not be surprised to see a major take out Kinross for the reserves and growth potential.
I'm done here. Time to focus on the important things. CHeers