overall pictureThe TSX and the Venture RSI's at 28 are the worst totals since last June to show you how oversold we are. No prediction for the future what direction is next, but the oversold figures usually don't lie.
The Venture, and no one is talking about this overall, is in a bear market. Two months ago we topped out at 2465 and now we are 2040. That is a 425 point fall which is very close to officially a 20% drop for a bear market.
I would be a lot more encouraged that the next move was up from these oversold conditions if the S & P wasn't so healthy - only 4 percent off the cycle high.
If the TSX and Venture feel the need to track the S & P, then oversold can get more oversold.
We shall see.
I have always been thinking that it should be the other way around - that the S and P should be the 20% down and the Venture the 3 % down, but that's the mysterious nature of the market. Should be that way considering the high price of commodities and the difficult input cost adjustments for most S & P companies.
Also, the irony of the China story in how it gets told is a farce. Two weeks ago, the market was selling commodities and China because they were running too hot. Wednesday's output numbers came out from China and now the market is selling commodities and China because they are cooling off. Wow, talk about wanting to sell a story no matter what.
Anyway, that's my ramble today. Trying to figure it out, and it's not easy these days. Finding a lot illogical.