RE: RE: ATC NewsThe real question i am asking myself at this point, as a current shareholder of ATC, is, with these sorts of results, and the overall markets beating and holding shareprice down, do we become worried about the possibility of a buyout forever locking the potential of this company in. ie - if the remaining results from this season come back in line with what came out this morning, and the share price stays where it is, i really can't imagine the majors not looking at this company over the winter, even at double where it is now. For those that bought when the sp was in the $10 range, you could actually be looking at a loss on a takeover bid, which for this project makes very little sense. I think this is realistically possible. So the kicker gets to be ... i wonder what the magic number is for those members on the board that represent the quota needed by any possible suitor, and what impact does the current market have on them.
If the answer is that they wouldn't sell for under $10 we are all looking good as i think we are ultimately virtually guaranteed to make some money off of this play, even if we have to hold for a couple of years. If they would sell for less than $10 today, we may all be very limited in our potential gains, as even though management is pushing the creation of value, great results are not driving the sp, which is leading to a great deal of inherent value in an takeover attempt, given that this asset is not likely to be in production for at least 3-5 years. ie - if i'm tech or goldcorp, or whoever, i am looking at this doing the math thinking, if we buy these assets for $600 million (double the current market cap - but only half of what the cap was this June), and we have x million oz in the ground what do we stand to make in 5 years, when the price of gold is $2000 or more per oz, factoring in capex to get the project going. At some point this math really starts to look attractive and someone will jump, and the max we stand to take out of this project is limited to that number. If sp continues to fall the way it is, regardless of results that should be at least stemming or one would hope turning the tide, the value we derive from owning these shares may not be much.
The key remains in what the holders of large blocks of these shares (ie - SMD) are doing/thinking of doing, and what there trigger point, at any given time is.