National Post Today on $500 Oilhttps://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/12/22/peter-goodspeed-irans-currency-collapse-prompts-fear-of-oil-blockade/
Lots of recent news on pending EU sanctions in Iran after the high demand oil seasonal period is over, in Q2. EU is working on Iran sanctions now but delaying till Q2. Lots of speculation that Iran would act pre-emptively if those sanctions were coming, and ban oil sales to the EU as Iran's big customers are China and India anyways with smaller sales to the EU.
Also Iran has scheduled 10 days of naval war games in the Strait of Hormuz ucoming. The Strait where 1/3 of the worlds daily oil is exported is an extremely narrow maritime passage. I have sailed and operated there and it would be extremely difficult for the US to clear if Iran were to block. Yes the US could clear the strait but not after a considerable period of blockage 1 month or two.
Good National Post article on the consequences.
I believe that Brent will increasingly carry a big risk premium even if this does not transpire. The Iran issue will not disappear but is headed for an eventual showdown. This is near certain given their nuclear ambitions that the West will do everything to fight agst and already is now very active in trying to stop.