More calculations... If FENs stock price jumps to
.50 for one well hit, and $1.00 for 2 wells hit and
.08 for a dry well, here are the expected values at 23% success, today:
1 successful well: (23%*
.50 + 77%*
.08) =
.1766
2 successful wells: (23%*$1.00 + 77%*
.08) =
.2916
These are the exact reasons I am invested. Today, using an expected value approach, the stock shoud be at
.175, if the market believes in a 23% success rate and SP of
.50 for success (keeping in mind this may be low).
Its simple math, the exact same as saying "would you rather $5 guaranteed, or a 50% chance at $10 and 50% chance of
"
JMO, yet again :)