RE: globalspeculation.com
Bradford, I haven't had a chance to look at the payout part of spreadsheet, but on the EBITDA inputs, you have some major problems.
The problem is you are assuming a very gradual decline in business over the next few years of around 8.5% for 2012, 4.1% for 2013, and 2.5% for 2014. What you missed was that there were corporate conversion costs in Q4 of 2010 of $25M that completely distort the appearance of the decline. When you back those out the actual EBITDA decline for 2011 was 21% year over year.
Credit Suisse has projected (based on numbers I already posted) EBITDA declines for 2012 of 21.4% and 2013 of 18.7%. Those are inline with the 21% actually reported. So Credit Suisse numbers have more credibility for me.
When you plug in real-world EBITDA declines into your spreadsheet model, the result is not catastrophic, but it is real real real UGLY. How you workout all this debt even stretching out to 2018, is not very obvious.