RE: deal coming or pullback.... As the stock price goes higher the likelyhood of NML being overvalued goes up. Hence the negative tone.
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NML management estimates its 20% net profits interest in the DSO project will be worth $20 to $40 million a year. Let's split the estimate down the middle: $30 million in cash for 10 years of mine life = $300 million in income. What would you pay today for a chance at that income stream? Maybe $100 million if the odds of the project being profitable were good?
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As we see with LIM, there's no certainty the DSO project will in fact be profitable right away. My guess is that cash distributions from the JV vehicle will be minimal in the first couple of years (revenues re-invested in continuing capital contributions) but will increase from 2015 on. A net profit interest is very different from a gross overriding royalty.
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The Taconite Project I hate, but you can assign some value to that if you like. They look like stranded assets to me. I assign a maximum of $150 million for the DSO project, another $150 million for the taconite and exploration projects, so $300 million market cap for NML seems like fair value to me.
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(The DSO project is delayed. That's not conspiracy mongering, that's a fact.)