RE: RE: What am I missing? Terry:
Here is another projection by a Yahoo poster (that dognelson, April 4, 2012 @ 2:40 PM & 3:50PM)
for Q4. Direction for the future is clear and all there for you to calculate. Here is my take: For 2012.
Approx 80,000 oz at $1,595 realized price less $825/oz cost, $12 mill capex. 30% tax rate = $20.8 mill net profit divided by 217 mill shares o/s =$.10 eps. at 15 pe a $1.50 stock price at 20 pe = $2 stock price BUT 825 cost is the high expected to drop to $700 per oz.
Production at the low end of forecast. Cash flow will be strong as the $9 mill in taxe payments will be deferred due to depreciation/amortization and loss carryfwrds BUT this is for 2012.
The forecast for 2013 is huge. 104,000 oz, realized price $1,650/oz, less costs of $700/oz less $16 million in cap expenditures less 30% tax = a net profit of $57.6 million / 217 mill shares = $.27 EPS = $4 share price at 15 pe and $5.34 share price at 20 pe.
No value placed on other properties!!! By Q3 2013 this should be moving towards $4 share price. A Triple !!! The numbers are there. You can calculate them yourself. My math is not wrong.
Has management presented accurate information/forecasts???? Just look at them buying stock.... half a million shares to management in just the last few days. This is like Alexco 3 yrs ago....... a HOMER!!!! Good Luck
---------------------- 2013 ----------------
Here is 2013 as per info in Q4 report
Production 104,000
My price estimate $1,650
Total Sales $171,600,000
Costs at $700/oz x 104,000 oz = $72,600,000 for a gross profit of=$98,800,000
less cap expenditures of $4 mill per quarter or $16,000,000 for pretax income of =$82,800,000
taxes at 30% or $ 24,840,000 (most of which will be deferred (non cash outflow) for a net profit of $57,960,000 divided by 217,000,000 shares o/s = $.27 eps x 20 pe = $5.34 share price.
But No value placed on other properties and no estimate of additional reserves found from now until dec 31, 2013..... each of which could be significant!!!!
Great buy in my opinion !!! They are doing it and putting $$$$ where the mouth is...... management buying stock like crazy!!!!! see previous post <posted above>!!!!
Cheers
Stanley