The Joseph Li Interview by TDWaterhouse
I have some thoughts on the article that jjeeddoo put up on March 29, 2012. The article interviewed Joseph Li, a director and chief operating officer of Prophecy Coal, so it should be credible.
https://research.tdwaterhouse.ca/research/public/Markets/CommoditiesNews?documentKey=1314-L3E8ET1SX-1
Averaging (the 70-75% to be raised from debt financing) to ~72.5%.
Also averaging (the 15-20 percent from the EPC contractor's equity investment) to ~17.5%
Thus, the final ~10% would be in the JV company and furnished by PCY shareholders (and others, if need be) into the JV company consisting of PCY and the EPC.
Don't like the idea of the EPC putting up about 17.5% and getting from 50 to 51% of the power plan (I'm using 50% each). The EPC having a ~50% project interest for putting up just 17.5% of the project cost, seems bad for Prophecy Coal. The EPC should pay the entire operational cost for the Power Plant except for the coal used by PCY to generate its 50% part of the power.
PCY's part of the $800 million at 72.5% would be $580 million
The EPC part of the $800 million at 17.5% would be $140 million.
PCY shareholders and others would put up 10% or $80 million.
Since many rates of interest have been mentioned, its difficult to come up with a correct figure for the annual P & I on PCYs 'part of the loan.
Since the article said “The agreement is expected to last at least 25 years.” I'm using
.08/Kwh, or $80,00/MW which comes to sales of $210.24 million annually over 25 years PCY's 300 MWh part of the Power Plant, after is in full operation circa Sept 2016. In addition PCY should generate sales from coal..
I believe that they should allow for escalations in the PPA, rather than keep it constant for 25 years. Perhaps it should be based on prices in surrounding countries.
The oft mentioned semi annual escalations of 2% would be excessive, as after 25 years, 50 upward 2% price increases, the PPA would be ~$207.80 per MW.