BNK provided answer re declines in the CC Unless I misheard it, in an answer to a question from one of the analysts, the analyst was advised that out of an approximate hundred wells expected to be placed on production, approximately 50 would be required to replenish declines and keep production stable, and the other 50 would provide growth in production.
The number of wells drilled in Q3 is likely to be far lower than the 38 they drilled in Q2 because a number of the rigs have not had a maintenance overhaul for a number of years. The owners will take them out in rotation and do the maintenance work. In answer to another question as to whether BNK will be paying anything for the rigs during that turnover, the answer was "zero cost to BNK".
So substantial growth in production is again back on the way, once all the remedials are done by year end and the rig retrofits are completed. In effect BNK had a "one lost year". Given the size of the prize and the challenges other companies have (geologic, geopolitical etc) that BNK does not have, this is not a major setback. Also, keep in mind that if they start getting 75%+ of Brent by end of Q3 as per current negotiations, that is almost equal to them getting 100% of WTI. How many companies in Western Canada get that?
We need to keep things in perspective. The CEO was a bit over-exuberant in the past and did not take all the potential hurdles/learning curves into account, but that is to a large extent a failure in investor communication, not in field potential. By many metrics the actual growth in production and reserves over the last 3 years or so exceeds that achieved by most oil companies in Western Canada. Let's keep that in mind.