RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: World bank
Hum... Why we can not have your point of view about this...karma
Just want to discust calculation about Share price expectation.
Think the average sellable is not ok... Just Look the way i see it...
So we have 15mt + 53mt + 23mt sellable for the 3 buyout = 91mt total sellable in buyout ( see original texte at the end)
Now just weight that
15mt / 91mt = 0,1648 (weight in this three buyout)
18.93$ * 0,1648 = 3,12$
53mt / 91mt = 0,5824 (weight in this three buyout)
8,35$ * 0,5824 = 4,86$
23mt / 91mt = 0,252 (weight in the three buyout)
,252 * 18,60$ = 4,69$
Total 3,12$ + 4,86 + 4,69 = 12,67$
Then for allana
71mt * 12,67$ = Around $ 900million
so 900million / 220million share = 4,09$/ share
thanks
Here karma post
Based on the last 3 potash take over deals Allana should expect nothing less than $4.93 per share based on the revised resource estimate and comparing apples to apples…the facts are the facts.
In 2008
BHP bought Anglo Potash “Jansen Project” for $284 MUSD. BHP bought out Anglo’s portion in the Burr Project. 25% x (Measured 238m tons + Indicated 241m tons = 479m tons) = 119m tons M+I at 37% KCL x 35% extraction ratio = 15m tons of sellable MOP or $284m / 15m tons = $18.93 per sellable ton. Potash was selling at $500 per ton and the capex per ton was $1529.
(Anglo Potash entered into a joint venture (the "JV"), with BHP Billiton pursuant to which Anglo Potash holds a 25% interest (through its wholly owned subsidiary Prairie Potash Corp.) and BHP holds a 75% interest in the JV.)
In 2010
BHP bought Athabasca Potash “Burr Project” for $341 MUSD. The “Burr Project” contains Measured Mineral Resources of 126m tons at a grade of 34% KCL, Indicated Mineral Resources of 299m tons at a grade of 37% KCL. The updated resource estimate (May 2009) of 425m tons M+I at 36%KCL x 35% extraction ratio = 53m tons of sellable MOPor $341 / 53m tons = $6.43 per sellable ton. Potash was selling at * $350 per ton (the lowest price per ton since early 2008). Using the price of potash at today’s $500 per ton the price per sellable ton would be = $8.35 per ton sellable. The capex per ton was $1047.
In 2011
K+S bought Potash One “Legacy Project” for$428 MUSD in 2011 with Potash selling at $450 per ton MOP. Indicated251m tons at 26% KCL x 35% extraction ratio = 23m tons of sellable MOP and (853m tons Inferred at 23%KCL) or $428m / 23m tons = $18.60 per ton sellable. Potash was selling at $475 per ton and the capex per ton was $996.
In 2012
Allana is expected to release a revised resource estimate by the beginning of May. Based on a review of released drill results and assuming continuity of similar results we can assume: current measured and indicated 674m tons plus 50% = 1.01 billion tons at 20% KCL x 35% extraction ratio = 71m tons of sellable MOP/SOP.
Assuming the current price of potash at $500 per ton (similar to 2008 and 2011) and applying the average sellable price per ton for the 3 deals above ($18.93+$8.35 +$18.60 / 3) = $15.29 per ton sellable.
71m tons sellable x $15.29 per ton = $1.09 billion / 220m shares outstanding = $4.93 per share AAA using equal dynamics and comparative tons, price and actual sellable tonnage.
The pending valuation for a take out offer of $4.93 per share of AAA assumes:
· No premium for the 50% of resource as SOP ($150 p ton usual premium);
· No premium for the pending BFS in September 2012;
· No premium for the $600m on “the table” from BNP for long term debt financing;
· No premium for Allana having one of the lowest capex per ton at $796 and Opex at $90 per ton.
Comparison of estimated cost of capex for the 3 deals:
Anglo Potash “Jansen Project” $1529 per ton capex
Athabasca Potash “Burr Project” $1047 per ton capex
Potash One “Legacy” $996 per ton capex
Current Market CAP of Allana minus cash for Allana (.50 cents x 220 m shares outstanding=$110m–$65m cash on hand = $45 m market cap or / 71m tons sellable = .65 cents per ton” sellable.
Which is “7” times lower than the average of the last 3 potash deals done…fact!
Average Capex/Ton for Selected Publicly Traded Potash Producers / Developers
Average Saskatchewan cost per ton = $1,029 per ton capex.