Bring on the negative GOLD nellies... https://www.euroinvestor.com/news/2013/01/03/credit-suisse-joins-others-in-lowering-gold-forecasts/12171682
"The 12-year-old U.S. dollar gold bull market is not yet dead in our opinion but nor is it in the best of health," said analysts at the bank.
They added, "2012 was a frequently trying year for gold traders and investors; we think 2013 will bring further prolonged periods of range trading in a low implied volatility environment."
Versus an actual 2012 average of close to $1,670/oz, the bank is still predicting a 4% year-on-year upward performance out of 2013.
However, "if our central macroeconomic case (the acute phase of the global crisis is probably over; slow improvement in growth through the second half) proves to be correct, then the relative appeal of gold is likely to diminish as fear trades fade," the bank noted.
"We believe some investors have already begun positioning for platinum-group-metal and base metal outperformance relative to gold," analysts added.
Indeed, the bank lifted its 2013 average palladium price forecast some 3.6% to $725/oz from $700/oz, leaving the corresponding 2014 forecast unchanged at $800/oz. For platinum, Credit Suisse analysts moderately trimmed the 2013 average forecast to $1,695/oz from $1,710/oz, then slightly lifted their expectations for the white metal in 2014, forecasting it to average $1,810/oz, against a precious metal forecast of $1,800/oz. The bank left its 2015 precious metal forecasts and longer-term expectations unchanged.
Also Thursday, HSBC lowered its 2013 gold price forecast, although still expecting prices to trend higher from where they are today. The bank lowered its expectations for 2013 gold prices to $1,760/oz from $1,850/oz, expecting a wide and volatile $1,575/oz to $1,950/oz trading range for 2013. Last month, Goldman Sachs slashed its forecasts, soon followed by a trimming of bullion price expectations from French bank group BNP Paribas.
"Our expanded modeling suggests that the improving U.S. growth outlook will outweigh further Fed balance sheet expansion and that the cycle in gold prices will likely turn in 2013," Goldman Sachs analysts said in December.