GREY:OLEPF - Post by User
Post by
tony1969on Jan 27, 2013 11:21am
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Post# 20895978
TGZ's Q4 earnings should be out....
TGZ's Q4 earnings should be out.... within the next couple of weeks. Two important points. They managed to keep their costs per ounce at $594 in Q3 2012. They are projecting somewhere between $600 and $650. It would be nice if they kept it in that range or surprised on the low side. Secondly, they continue paying down their hedge. They should be down to about 65,000 ounces as of Dec 31st 2012. I read that they lost $25 million (or would have made an extra $25 million) in earnings in the first three quarters of last year if it were not for the hedge contract. They still managed a $21 million Q3 2012 profit even after paying down 29,000 ounces. Once they finish paying it off in Q2 2013 they will have a dramatic increase in cash flow and earnings. If and when they do decide that they must make a run at OLE they will be more than able to finance a purchase with stock and cash.
Judging by their Q3 results I believe that they can easily make $.60 to $.65 per share once the hedge is paid. At $2.30 that gives them a price to earnings of about 4. Crazy cheap. Imagine if they manage to get OLE and start cranking out close to 400,000 ounces in a year or two. Even after the dilution that TGZ would incurr the combination with OLE will result in dramatically higher earnings especially if they manage to keep costs under $650 per ounce.